2023 is around the corner, and it isn't unusual and unexpected that permutations as to who would emerge as presidential candidates of the major political parties in Nigeria is gearing up. In fact, preparations for who would succeed President Muhammadu Buhari started ín 2019, after he was sworn in for a second term. There are some people who think it started a few months after he won elections in his first term, and it became apparent that not much would be achieved in terms of building up Nigeria as a nation under him.
After the 2015 Presidential Elections, where the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC), an amalgam of four opposition parties, managed an upset, the first of its kind in Nigeria, in an alliance majorly between the core Northern region that Buhari always aced, or garnered assuring numbers from, and the Southwest where former Governor Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu held sway; it looked almost certain that the North will return the favour by backing Tinubu for the presidency in 2023.
Events thereafter has shown that that assertion may not entirely be true, as no sooner had Buhari gained power, than Tinubu was relegated to the background by what was later to be known as the "cabal", comprising of Buhari's kitchen cabinet, made up of close relatives and allies, all either from his immediate locality of birth, or from the north. He didn't seem to have cast his net that so wide, either during his military career, that propelled him to the position of Head Of State, or his political career during the many times he vied for the presidency, in the way he made his choice of those who would be close to him on the basis of trust, especially gained from working with such persons for years, in the past.
Before his reelection however, he appeared to favour the mending of fences with Tinubu and once again the tape as with the first term was replayed after he regained power, as most of Tinubu's men in government and in the party were either shoved out or rendered redundant or quiet. When the Vice President 'Yemi Osinbajo (a Tinubu ally), instilled hope and shone as a bright light in the many absences of Buhari while the latter travelled abroad to cater to his health, he soon became relegated (from the first term, till date), such that subsequently power was henceforth not transmitted to him whenever his principal was away. Recently though, there's been some noise around the candidacy of Osinbajo with certain groups making it seem like he has the blessing of Buhari to succeed him. President Buhari in a recent and rare interview with the press did allude to the fact that he has a preferred candidate, but would rather not say for now, for the safety of the person. It would appear that Tinubu must've decided it most timely to appear at this stage with his visit to the Presidential villa yesterday.
He emerged from that meeting with the president to intimate the press that he just informed the latter of his intention to run for the presidency next year, as part of his consultations before making his official declaration. This will be seen in many quarters as him getting ahead of the news, and ending conjectures surrounding his intentions that have gained ground over the years. It can also be viewed as a form of soft reminder to the incumbent of a gentleman agreement that may have existed in the past before Tinubu threw in his political capital to support and propel the former to power, in case he was beginning to forget, or finding it convenient not to remember that such a thing ever existed, even though there might not be evidence whatsoever to substantiate the claim.
In the midst of these is what the opposition People's Democratic Party is doing. The discordant tune from there though not as loud as in the APC now where everyone is suspiciously eyeing each other, is just as much significant. Southeast politicians who feel they've always kept faith with the party are unhappy with their northern counterparts who feel that fielding a northerner as their presidential candidate in 2023 is the only way the PDP can regain power at the centre, as they seem to be saying that there's no way northerners would overlook (and pass on the chance of producing a president of Northern extraction yet again) a northern candidate, even if from the PDP for a southerner (if the APC opts to go south), and have power removed from the north for another eight years. Elements in the APC who do not want a Tinubu pocketing Nigeria the way he's done with Lagos will be the ones he will have to battle not just for his political future, but for that of any one he might decide to support should odds become stacked against his ambition, and he decides to yield, especially as those opposed to his candidacy are beginning to chance on his age, and possibly health status as their reasons.
The day is still young though and only time can reveal what lies in stock for everyone one of us. The undeniable fact is that whoever takes over Nigeria in 2023 will have his work cut out for him. A significant event that made many yearn for 2023 was Buhari's seeming helplessness to the activities of Fulani herdsmen, his kinsmen, whom it appears seized on the opportunity that the president was of their tribe, and that most of those at the helm of affairs of the security and intelligence agencies were also of their tribe (at the time), and might be sympathetic to their cause, carried out acts of killings and brigandage with impunity, focusing initially on the North-Central region, Benue State particularly before spreading their nets further afield to other adjoining states in the South, in what was later to be officially termed farmer-herder clashes, even though most of those termed farmers (including women and children) were butchered while they slept at night.
With the spate of killings and the increasing level of insecurity across the country, many States have adopted something akin to state police by setting up security agencies officially to assist the security agencies with the work of policing their states, and unofficially to nip the activities of marauding herdsmen and criminal gangs operating in their name, in the bud. These groups are especially active in the southwest, as Amotekun, while they are less visible in the Southeast as Ebubeagu, and in places like Benue State they are called Forest Guards. There's no gsinsaying the fact that under the Buhari administration, the security situation has worsened, but unlike many bad situations that have good aftermath, it has also led to the equipping of nigeria's military with hardware that in the future, under proper leadership could be put to the good use of defending the nation's sovereignty and integrity.
The economy of Nigeria has never been this badly hit in recent times, with the currency battered and hardly competing with its foreign counterparts, alongside mounting debt portfolio that may have been suretied with Nigeria's abundant oil and gas deposits, which is also been threatened with the world gradually and steadily opting for greener alternatives, meaning that those hydrocarbon deposits may not be able to bail us out later. Sadly, the government that promised to diversify, seemed to focus majorly on one thing, and one thing alone, since coming to power, seeking for oil, and it's exploration thereof in the North, to give it bragging rights over the Niger Delta, to stop the latter from holding the country, and northern rulers to the jugular. In the recent interview President Buhari granted, he responded to the issue of the dwindling economic fortunes of Nigeria by saying he'd always asked Nigerians to return to the farm, and one commentator retorted that if agriculture was so important to the president how is it that it is to the Ministry of Petroleum Resources, and not that of Agriculture and Water Resources that he thought to expend his energy as Minister, which he runs alongside his job as president. The paradox of it all is that the farms are also the places that have become one of the most insecure places to be in today's Nigeria.
Diehard supporters of President Buhari point to the infrastructural strides he's made, but close their eyes to the cost, not in Naira and Kobo, or Dollars and Yuan, but in what was mortgaged to secure the loans thereof. One time the legislature sought to know the terms and conditions associated with the loans obtained from the Chinese to upgrade Nigeria's rail network, Transport minister, Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi responded by saying that digging into the matter will discourage the Chinese lenders from further and future financial and technical support, and after a few more wrangling they (legislators) let the matter rest. Is this how a country is, and should be run? Another issue related to this is how political, sectional and primordial considerations determine the siting of infrastructure over need, and commercial viability.
These are just a few of the strings Nigeria is trying to balance on, that those in power have set us on, away from terra firma, that anyone wishing to takeover must career us from. Sadly, by the nature alone, of those putting themselves forward, or those suspected to be nursing the ambition, especially in the big parties, there's no sign of change (for the better) in the horizon. There are better and younger people available, even in the so called big parties, they will, and some have already indicated interest to run, but unfortunately Nigeria is structured in such a way as to not allow its best to be put out for elective positions, and in the few occasions, those taught to be idealists make it into power, they are soon corrupted by the perks of their position, and end up turning up worse than the politicians we hoped they'd outperform. Our only consolation is that life must go on regardless, and because no matter how wicked, heartless, and anti-people a government's policy(-ies) might turn out to be, there will always be that one or two things that regime will do to move the country forward. It is those little things that I look forward to, while hoping that the number of such increases with time along with the changes that time enables, because as for individuals in power, in Nigeria, they are usually more, of the same.
'kovich