AS NIGERIA HEADS TO THE POLLS IN 2023

It's elections season once again, and every other pressing matter in Nigeria has been relegated to the background, not just by the government which must be heaving a sigh of relief owing to the lull from the barrage of verbal attacks it suffers not only from ordinary Nigerians for making their lives difficult, but also by the press which has since seized to be the mouthpiece through which these complaints, including expletives reach the government, leaving social media, as the only means and voice of the voiceless, many times to an empty "Hall", in the case of a government that couldn't care less, or that goes further to ban outlets such as twitter in a bid to stifle avenues the people engage to ventilate their frustration with the government (before political considerations led to its unbanning). It is for this reason that we are all pretending as if there's no more banditry, kidnappings, killings, insurgency, high cost of living, fuel scarcity etc going on, all because electioneering has taken centre stage.

In this elections, there's no gainsaying that there are mainly three frontrunners, namely and in no particular order, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the People's Democratic Party, PDP, and Labour Party, LP's Peter Obi. Some people will like to add New Nigeria People's Party, NNPP's Presidential Candidate, Alhaji Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, but even those that do so, know that he's no top three candidate, even though I stand to be corrected by the outcome of the elections. There are many others who are there to make up the numbers, including Omoyele Sowore, being the most vociferous of this group. This, his second outing as a presidential candidate, after he, amongst many others worked tirelessly to install this same government he's now eager to replace. It must've occurred to him, soon after this government was installed in 2015, that the devil you know, is better than the angel you don't know, because of the amount of suffering he endured personally, and collectively as a Nigerian, under it compared to the one he actively participated in toppling democratically.

Many people who think Tinubu shouldn't be president because of his frailties, forget so easily that even worse was thought of President Muhammadu Buhari, who then turned out to outlive some of those who didn't see him going beyond a first term in office. Tinubu on the other hand has produced gaffes, and continue to be the engine feeding skit makers and comedians with content at any of his outings, such that they glide in for the giveaway once he tremulously grabs the microphone. In the midst of all the snicker is the apprehension that he might just win the elections. No one gave him a chance before the primaries, indeed some of his opponents thought themselves to be Buhari's anointed, and all Tinubu asked for was a level playing field, which once it was granted, he exploited to become the presidential candidate of his party by a very convincing, incontestable margin. He's the sort of politician that knows what to do to sway votes his way, especially in the dying minutes, that is why he hasn't bothered with debates on TV, where he knows he'd get nothing but more embarrassment from an audience waiting for him to goof.

A peculiarity with Tinubu's campaign is the sense of entitlement. One of the posters of Tinubu and his running mate, Senator Kashim Shettima, had the inscription, "THE HEROES OF OUR TIME", and before now the catch phrase upon which the campaign is based is "Emilokan", Yoruba for "It Is My Turn", based on Tinubu's supposition that having brought many into positions of power, including the incumbent, President Buhari into power, he also deserves to have a taste of the presidency, which he claims to be at the top of his desires for a long time. This is without considering the clamour from the southeast for the position, seeing as the Yoruba have enjoyed many top political positions at the national level, including the presidency for eight years, and vice presidency for another eight, since the return of civil rule in 1999. The boldness behind the movement is reminiscent of the beginnings of similar adventures with disastrous endings because of its unnatural leanings and lack of respect and recognition of divine will.

Atiku Abubakar is currently nursing the wound that Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State continues to inflict on him, with his almost daily tirade, that the media are always on standby to air, hot and sizzling to the reading, listening and viewing public. Wike is so angry with Atiku that he stripped all the privileges from a former Governor Celestine Omehia (that he favoured so much in the past, just to spite the immediate past governor, and former minister for transportation, Rt. Hon. Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi), because he aligned with Atiku, anchoring his decision on a court ruling that declared the latter's tenure unconstitutional. Atiku's response to the avalanche of demarketing that he's suffering is doubling his campaign efforts, nationwide, attending debates and other fora where he thinks he will be able to reach Nigerians, as if the Wike thing is non existent. His decision to go ahead vigorously with his campaign while backdoor efforts are being made to bring dissident "INTEGRITY GROUP/G5" members, consisting of five PDP governors with their supporters, back into the fold, seems to be the best he could've done in his position.

The best case scenario for him will be a situation where Wike, the main protagonist and the other four governors return and support his campaign, or at best stop acting as stumbling blocks to his ambition if they won't support him, and then northern Christians rejecting APC and Tinubu's Muslim - Muslim ticket, as well as hoping the northerners throw their support naturally behind one of theirs, who he directly wooed at the meeting he had with a section of organizations from the region when he told them to support him as only someone from their region could fulfil their aspirations. But when Nigerians from the North Central regions, South West and Southeast remember that Atiku is fulani, just like President Buhari under whose reign fulani herdsmen continue to hold Nigerians hostage security wise, they wonder if it is trite to maintain the status quo, assuming that Atiku may look away from the atrocities of his kinsmen without actively encouraging efforts to bring them to justice. It is for this reason that Benue's Governor Ortom has a different axe to grind with Atiku, apart from the other issue the G5 governors (of which he's a part) have with him.

Peter Obi was Atiku's running mate in the last presidential election in 2019. He actually was in the hall the day Atiku declared for presidency under the banner of PDP, before decamping to the Labour Party, LP to actualize his presidential ambition, once it became clear that the PDP wasn't going to zone the position to the South, even though the chairman of the party is from the North, against PDP constitutional provisions, the core of Wike's angst against PDP and Atiku in particular. It was in the knowledge of this that Wike backed the ascension of the party chairman, Iyorchia Ayu from the North, until not only was the zoning not done in favour of the south, but that Atiku went on to win the presidential primaries despite his efforts.

Obi seems to be the candidate that has mass appeal, especially amongst youths that have become disillusioned with the status quo. It was initially thought that his supporters were mainly noise makers on social media with at best, a scant structure on ground, but as these trooped out to get registered and encouraged others to so do, they began to be noticed as threats by opposing parties. Sadly, the party seems to be only about Obi, and at the national level only, that makes the discerning wonder what will happen should he win the presidency. Some commentators reckon that it will be easier for him to decamp to either of the major two, most likely PDP, than for most members of the national assembly to decamp to his party, LP.

Peter Obi hasn't been helped by his past though, because a lot of what the media recorded during his time as governor of Anambra State wasn't palatable, besides leaving a healthy sum in the states till. Even the present governor of Anambra State appear not to give a hoot about him, and rather than just keep quiet about it, has gone to town to demarket his "brother". As if that wasn't bad enough, one of Anambra's notable billionaires, Prince Arthur Eze, recently advised Obi to shelve his presidential ambition. Another hindrance on Obi's path is the activities of groups perpetrating acts of violence and brigandage in the southeast, including targeting INEC offices and creating an atmosphere of fear that may cause many voters from the region he hails from, who hopefully could vote in his favour to be disenfranchised, unlike his opponents who may/can boast of the majority of the votes in their regions going in their favour, including in the North where in spite of the insecurity there, that Boko Haram and the bandits amongst others know better than to destroy INEC offices or disrupt the political processes, because in Nigeria, politics is local.

It has been public knowledge that former President Olusegun Obasanjo is backing Obi, not even because the latter's campaign Director General was Dr. Doyin Okupe, an Obasanjo loyalist, but for other reasons, however the replacement of Okupe following his resignation with Mr. Akin Osuntokun leaves no one in any form of doubt that Obi's project is OBJ's project, and usually this may just mean also the support of some retired military generals that the latter rolls with, from different parts of Nigeria. Maybe this will form one of the basis of discussion in the meeting the G5 are currently holding to decide who among the aspirants to throw their weight behind.

I don't think this piece will be complete without saying a thing or two about NNPP's candidate, even though I haven't counted him as one of the major contenders. It will be one of the greatest upsets in political history should he win the next election though. It may not be out of place to say that the major candidates are regional leaders, and if they are, Kwankwaso can be described as having a stronghold within one of the regions, and therefore capable to act as spoiler to Atiku's chances in the Northwest, and to some extent Tinubu's as well, and not so much to Obi who hardly stands any chance in that region. Amongst his staunch supporters though, there'll be no yielding of the grounds, but doing very well in just two states can only take a presidential candidate so far in a presidential election. In Nigeria, one of the reasons politicians persist in campaigning for elective positions even when they are in an unwinnable position is for the sake of relevance, which may come in handy for the next elections. This in my view, is the game Kwankwasiya movement is playing.

Whether this is, or will be a two-, three- or even a four - horse race, only time will tell. I have heard some commentators say that what is most likely is a situation where none of the candidates get a majority (due to how a lot of regionalism is tied to the candidates), leading to a runoff, but again impossible Is nothing, and between now and February 2023, a lot can happen, either to make the race even more predictable, or turn predictions and pollings on their head. For now pollings seem to favour candidates that have supporters with social media presence which may be a different thing at the polls when the majority from the nooks and cranny of Nigeria, without or limited access to information and communication technology will come out in their numbers to exercise their franchise. Hopefully, all sides concerned will accept the outcome of the elections with equanimity, so that the air of foreboding regarding post election violence (which is not unusual in Nigeria), will not come to pass. 

'kovich

PICTURE CREDIT:

- https://leadership.ng

BAMISE AND LAGOS' SECURITY WOES

 It was painful to follow the story of AYANWOLE BAMISE on twitter by @Mercy_McQuin these past few days when she was missing, and then hours following the discovery of her body, with some reports stating that some of her body parts were missing. The discovery of her body was quickly filled with that of the arrest of the driver, whose account sounds very ridiculous to me, even though there's always a place for the benefit of doubt. What is core is that in Lagos presently, security is at its lowest ebb, and the fact that the most frequent mode has been the transport system is the most distressing, as the perpetrators of crime by this means will always find cannon fodder. 

Gone are the days when one read about such issues, or heard of it in news bulletins, but we are now starting to know people that have been affected directly. One of our admin staff at work replaces his phone annually, sometimes twice a year, because its either stolen, lost or mugged in the bus, tricycle or while walking. The last time was atop a motorbike taxi, where he got ridden to an uncompleted building and dispossessed of all he had on him. We allowed a female staff to come in an hour later than every other person in the morning because she was also mugged in a bus, and dispossessed as well. Most recently, a female colleague was relieved of her iPhone and told to alight from the minibus popularly called kórópe in Lagos, as the driver said he wasn't going in her direction anymore. A well known trick between criminally minded bus drivers and their conductors, these days. I'm very sure you will have your own experiences, personal, or of people close to you, but I hope not, the kind in this Bamise's sad situation.

Some people commenting online were wondering how the BRT Buses hitherto considered to be safe turned out to have such a horrific story come to be about it, but I remember that some time ago, it was reported that some passengers inside a BRT bus were robbed at gunpoint. So the potential, apart from the actuality has always been there. Sadly, these crimes now happen at any time of the day, unlike when it was thought to be at the extreme times of day, for which I stopped leaving home every morning until I see the first glimmer of light, and limited my late night outings to only when necessary. Like my colleague who was recently at the receiving end of their activities, many Lagosians have opted to getting their own cars, despite the heavy traffic occasioned by the number of vehicles on very few motorable roads in Lagos, owing to the security situation, over and above any other reason one may site.

Bamise 

boarded the BRT bus outside of the park, from Chevron Bus Stop in Ajah, for her destination in Oshodi, at just around 7pm in the evening. How late was that? She did suspect that something was amiss when the driver had the light of the bus off the whole time she was there, and called her friend on WhatsApp, exchanging voice notes and videos with her, to apprise her of developments till she couldn't anymore. It doesn't appear that the driver remembered that when he was giving the interview that's online now,

 

where he mentioned nothing of the likes, even though like Bamise had revealed in her voice note, that three men and a woman later joined them, and that he, at gunpoint followed their instructions to divert from the course of the journey, to Carter Bridge, where he said he thought they didn't go with her because he saw her struggling with the men while holding on to a pole in the bus, and they alighted before he zoomed off . He conveniently forgot to say anything about turning off the light in the bus, even before he picked the so called passengers that he alleged were the killers of Bamise.

He witnessed all these, according to him but failed to go to any police station to report, so that even the so called ordinarily unempathic and unsympathetic Nigerian police can do the little they can, or in the least, even raise awareness about the situation, but rather he drove the bus to the terminal and parked it there as he would on a good day, then disappeared, until he was apprehended yesterday. I can point to no action of his that suggests that he's innocent of the the crime, but what do I know. I can only hope that the arm of the law catches up with the perpetrators of this crime, which I hate to think may be futile considering the levity with which the case had been treated, and would have remained so, had the late Bamise not had people who consistently and relentlessly pursued her matter, to the best of their ability online, and on ground, enough to get the attention of the authorities and to keep them in their toes.

A few weeks back I called up family in the North to ask how they were doing, and how concerned I was about their safety, and one of them actually laughed telling me that they always have me in their prayers because of the kind of things they hear happening in Lagos leaving them scared for me. I couldn't even counter the thought because after thinking about it, I observed the truism in their concern. Sadly, this is the reality of our time, that people in the North, with all the Boko Haram, ISWAP, kidnappers, marauding herdsmen, bandits, and the likes, think Lagos more unsafe than their locations.

The role twitter has been playing in Nigeria, in solving crime must be emphasised at this point, unfortunately until recently the government felt it trite to have that platform suspended, leaving me wondering how many other crimes occurred within that period of suspension that got swept under the carpet because there was no where to make the subject or topic of missing persons trend. It is often said that crime thrives when the punishment is less than the incentive, which is unfortunately where Nigeria is presently. The Nigerian Police, and other government agencies, especially those tasked with overseeing the environment simply evacuate dead bodies lying on the street without asking salient and germaine questions, like they are the disposal arm (cleaners) of killers and murderers, including ritualists, after harvesting the organs they need from the dead.

The rise of ritual killings in recent times is testament to the decadence in our society. A society that lays emphasis only on riches and wealth, where the wealthy have a say, and the poor foolish, to the detriment of morality and justice. Even children don't want to grow anymore before having and talking about money. Money, and wealth for which no question is asked, just get it. All of the motivational speaking geared towards one aim, money. Sadly, the wealthy can't tell you how they made it, and you can't see or follow their rise in life or business, the way you can track the wealth of the likes of Bill Gates, Elon Musk and the likes. People just wake up one morning, and they are rich, and when you ask they say "Na God", while flaunting the wealth at any given opportunity. So, when boys are told they have to bring this or that part of a human, or even a whole human being for sacrifice to be wealthy, they don't think twice or take a day to think about it before jumping on the so called opportunity.

But our society is what it is, and we must still go around in search of daily bread, attend functions and the likes, visit family, so what to do? Safety precautions have become more than a necessity for now, as that person you haven't seen before (or the one you know even), around you could just be planning to harm you, hence it has become pertinent that we make that a subject of discussion daily, as those whom the government has saddled with the responsibility to protect us seem to be shirking that responsibility. It is sad to note that Bamise took most of the measures she could possibly have, in fact had it not been that she did all that she, maybe she'd have become a mere statistic in the growing number of missing persons, and unclaimed bodies in morgues allover Lagos today. We shouldn't be discouraged though, teaching not just girls, but everyone safety tips, including videos, music and movies about it (rather than more of the ritual and gangster movies) should be paramount, and will go a long way in helping us reduce these sad incidences, while the police should for once be more proactive in combating crime and criminality, with a justice system that must be seen and perceived to be doing, and not perverting the cause of justice.

'kovich

PICTURE CREDIT:
- https://guardian.ng

AS 2023 DRAWS NIGH

2023 is around the corner, and it isn't unusual and unexpected that permutations as to who would emerge as presidential candidates of the major political parties in Nigeria is gearing up. In fact, preparations for who would succeed President Muhammadu Buhari started ín 2019, after he was sworn in for a second term. There are some people who think it started a few months after he won elections in his first term, and it became apparent that not much would be achieved in terms of building up Nigeria as a nation under him. 

After the 2015 Presidential Elections, where the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC), an amalgam of four opposition parties, managed an upset, the first of its kind in Nigeria, in an alliance majorly between the core Northern region that Buhari always aced, or garnered assuring numbers from, and the Southwest where former Governor Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu held sway; it looked almost certain that the North will return the favour by backing Tinubu for the presidency in 2023. 

Events thereafter has shown that that assertion may not entirely be true, as no sooner had Buhari gained power, than Tinubu was relegated to the background by what was later to be known as the "cabal", comprising of Buhari's kitchen cabinet, made up of close relatives and allies, all either from his immediate locality of birth, or from the north. He didn't seem to have cast his net that so wide, either during his military career, that propelled him to the position of Head Of State, or his political career during the many times he vied for the presidency, in the way he made his choice of those who would be close to him on the basis of trust, especially gained from working with such persons for years, in the past. 

Before his reelection however, he appeared to favour the mending of fences with Tinubu and once again the tape as with the first term was replayed after he regained power, as most of Tinubu's men in government and in the party were either shoved out or rendered redundant or quiet. When the Vice President 'Yemi Osinbajo (a Tinubu ally), instilled hope and shone as a bright light in the many absences of Buhari while the latter travelled abroad to cater to his health, he soon became relegated (from the first term, till date), such that subsequently power was henceforth not transmitted to him whenever his principal was away. Recently though, there's been some noise around the candidacy of Osinbajo with certain groups making it seem like he has the blessing of Buhari to succeed him. President Buhari in a recent and rare interview with the press did allude to the fact that he has a preferred candidate, but would rather not say for now, for the safety of the person. It would appear that Tinubu must've decided it most timely to appear at this stage with his visit to the Presidential villa yesterday. 

He emerged from that meeting with the president to intimate the press that he just informed the latter of his intention to run for the presidency next year, as part of his consultations before making his official declaration. This will be seen in many quarters as him getting ahead of the news, and ending conjectures surrounding his intentions that have gained ground over the years. It can also be viewed as a form of soft reminder to the incumbent of a gentleman agreement that may have existed in the past before Tinubu threw in his political capital to support and propel the former to power, in case he was beginning to forget, or finding it convenient not to remember that such a thing ever existed, even though there might not be evidence whatsoever to substantiate the claim. 

In the midst of these is what the opposition People's Democratic Party is doing. The discordant tune from there though not as loud as in the APC now where everyone is suspiciously eyeing each other, is just as much significant. Southeast politicians who feel they've always kept faith with the party are unhappy with their northern counterparts who feel that fielding a northerner as their presidential candidate in 2023 is the only way the PDP can regain power at the centre, as they seem to be saying that there's no way northerners would overlook (and pass on the chance of producing a president of Northern extraction yet again) a northern candidate, even if from the PDP for a southerner (if the APC opts to go south), and have power removed from the north for another eight years. Elements in the APC who do not want a Tinubu pocketing Nigeria the way he's done with Lagos will be the ones he will have to battle not just for his political future, but for that of any one he might decide to support should odds become stacked against his ambition, and he decides to yield, especially as those opposed to his candidacy are beginning to chance on his age, and possibly health status as their reasons. 

The day is still young though and only time can reveal what lies in stock for everyone one of us. The undeniable fact is that whoever takes over Nigeria in 2023 will have his work cut out for him. A significant event that made many yearn for 2023 was Buhari's seeming helplessness to the activities of Fulani herdsmen, his kinsmen, whom it appears seized on the opportunity that the president was of their tribe, and that most of those at the helm of affairs of the security and intelligence agencies were also of their tribe (at the time), and might be sympathetic to their cause, carried out acts of killings and brigandage with impunity, focusing initially on the North-Central region, Benue State particularly before spreading their nets further afield to other adjoining states in the South, in what was later to be officially termed farmer-herder clashes, even though most of those termed farmers (including women and children) were butchered while they slept at night. 

With the spate of killings and the increasing level of insecurity across the country, many States have adopted something akin to state police by setting up security agencies officially to assist the security agencies with the work of policing their states, and unofficially to nip the activities of marauding herdsmen and criminal gangs operating in their name, in the bud. These groups are especially active in the southwest, as Amotekun, while they are less visible in the Southeast as Ebubeagu, and in places like Benue State they are called Forest Guards. There's no gsinsaying the fact that under the Buhari administration, the security situation has worsened, but unlike many bad situations that have good aftermath, it has also led to the equipping of nigeria's military with hardware that in the future, under proper leadership could be put to the good use of defending the nation's sovereignty and integrity. 

The economy of Nigeria has never been this badly hit in recent times, with the currency battered and hardly competing with its foreign counterparts, alongside mounting debt portfolio that may have been suretied with Nigeria's abundant oil and gas deposits, which is also been threatened with the world gradually and steadily opting for greener alternatives, meaning that those hydrocarbon deposits may not be able to bail us out later. Sadly, the government that promised to diversify, seemed to focus majorly on one thing, and one thing alone, since coming to power, seeking for oil, and it's exploration thereof in the North, to give it bragging rights over the Niger Delta, to stop the latter from holding the country, and northern rulers to the jugular. In the recent interview President Buhari granted, he responded to the issue of the dwindling economic fortunes of Nigeria by saying he'd always asked Nigerians to return to the farm, and one commentator retorted that if agriculture was so important to the president how is it that it is to the Ministry of Petroleum Resources, and not that of Agriculture and Water Resources that he thought to expend his energy as Minister, which he runs alongside his job as president. The paradox of it all is that the farms are also the places that have become one of the most insecure places to be in today's Nigeria. 

Diehard supporters of President Buhari point to the infrastructural strides he's made, but close their eyes to the cost, not in Naira and Kobo, or Dollars and Yuan, but in what was mortgaged to secure the loans thereof. One time the legislature sought to know the terms and conditions associated with the loans obtained from the Chinese to upgrade Nigeria's rail network, Transport minister, Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi responded by saying that digging into the matter will discourage the Chinese lenders from further and future financial and technical support, and after a few more wrangling they (legislators) let the matter rest. Is this how a country is, and should be run? Another issue related to this is how political, sectional and primordial considerations determine the siting of infrastructure over need, and commercial viability. 

These are just a few of the strings Nigeria is trying to balance on, that those in power have set us on, away from terra firma, that anyone wishing to takeover must career us from. Sadly, by the nature alone, of those putting themselves forward, or those suspected to be nursing the ambition, especially in the big parties, there's no sign of change (for the better) in the horizon. There are better and younger people available, even in the so called big parties, they will, and some have already indicated interest to run, but unfortunately Nigeria is structured in such a way as to not allow its best to be put out for elective positions, and in the few occasions, those taught to be idealists make it into power, they are soon corrupted by the perks of their position, and end up turning up worse than the politicians we hoped they'd outperform. Our only consolation is that life must go on regardless, and because no matter how wicked, heartless, and anti-people a government's policy(-ies) might turn out to be, there will always be that one or two things that regime will do to move the country forward. It is those little things that I look forward to, while hoping that the number of such increases with time along with the changes that time enables, because as for individuals in power, in Nigeria, they are usually more, of the same. 

'kovich