INVICTUS TINUBU

 The past few weeks has been electioneering period in Nigeria, and what stood out for me was how the Jagaban, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu pursued his presidential ambition. He made it known to all that he has been nursing the ambition a long time, and it dictated every move he made since he made the goal his ambition. His ambition drove him to insist that it was his turn to take the presidency, after he'd purportedly helped others to achieve their political dreams. His grandstanding even against the run of play can now be described as something worth emulating, even though at the time it felt arrogant, the sort of arrogance only those willing to go against the gods would exercise before their ultimate fall.

But he didn't fail, and was declared the winner of the elections by the chairman of the body saddled with the responsibility of organising elections in Nigeria, the process that has since been declared as a step back from the progress achieved over the years, and conduct of which is now the subject of litigation at the elections tribunal, with other contestants challenging the outcome of the elections. Barring other unforseen circumstances, Tinubu will be sworn in on the 29th of May, 2023, making his deposition seem near impossible, and an unfavourable ruling from the Supreme Court highly unlikely, as has yet such a precedence does not exist in Nigeria.

The tribunal Justices have already warned against frivolous applications, and attempts to make the court decide the case based on technicalities over the merits, an exercise in futility. This is already pointing to the side of striking out pre-election matters, and the possibility of the justices basing their decision on what they think will foster and engender peace in the country, which makes one wonder what might be sidestepped so that peace may be maintained, as determined by the justices, especially after Tinubu must've been sworn in as president.

Another ominous sign for me is the declaration by the Supreme Court of Senator Ademola Adeleke as the winner of the gubernatorial elections held in Osun State last year. Many PDP members are celebrating this judgement as landmark pointing to its ruling on the BVAS, and by extension, the IREV as a shadow of things to come, as the presidential election tribunal gets under way. Those with discerning eyes are however seeing this in another light, and that is in how it is that each time Tinubu loses in little things that are directly related to him, or big things that are indirectly associated with him, he tends to get compensation in winning big things associated directly with him thereafter. You'd see him showing magnanimity when he endures such losses, so that his reaction can be pointed at when he wins big, and the loser encouraged to exhibit the spirit of sportsmanship, just like he had done.

If you still don't get what I'm saying, remember that Governor Oyetola who lost to Adeleke at the Supreme Court is thought to be related to Tinubu, besides been a member of his political party, such that when he lost the guber elections reference was especially made to Tinubu, with pointers to the effect that he might have begun to lose grip over the southwestern States. It is testament to Adeleke's political sagacity that after coming very close to defeating Oyetola in 2018, and controversially losing in the rerun in a few battle grounds after the main elections, he resoundingly won last year, and went on to deliver his state for his party in the presidential elections, a loss for Tinubu in a state his traducers say he originally hailed from. An example of what I talked about is how when Tinubu lost in Osun and Lagos States in the presidential elections in February, he appeared unperturbed while focusing on the bigger prize, purportedly winning from other states, some of which were outside his immediate control, which made those losses in the states he seemingly controlled inconsequential.

The possibility of viewing the proceedings live is another sore area for me in all these, because this way the events preceding and during the elections, will remain ingrained in the consciousness of Nigerians as they go through their daily routines, and the tense atmosphere which pervaded the country, prior and during the elections, that has gradually begun to fizzle out will return, and may likely conflagrate, depending on the decision of the court, either at the first instance or at the final, at the Supreme Court. The court of public opinion will run pari passu the actual court hearing, in the event of the court granting leave to those seeking the live airing of the proceedings, and much like those days of the TRUTH AND RECONCILIATION COMMISSION headed by Justice Chukwudifu Oputa, at the advent of the Fourth Republic, post the 1999 elections that ushered in civilian rule, after many years of military, where sometimes the irrelevants were elevated over the significants, even by the press may become the order of the day.

Regarding the outcome of the presidential election tribunal, I do not foresee the final judgement upturning Tinubu's declaration as president-elect, this is because he'd be president by the time the case would be determined, and there's as yet no precedence of such in Nigeria, as I've earlier mentioned. The next best in that direction would probably be the ordering of a new election, but under whose supervision as Head of State? Okay maybe, the President of the Senate, a member of Tinubu's party? This is where that statement about a ruling that will engender peace will come to make sense. Whether the aggrieved parties will maintain peace afterwards is left to be seen, and that side by side with how President Tinubu will react to dissent or demonstrations if that were to be the immediate reaction to the outcome of the Supreme Court judgement in his favour.

'kovich

PICTURE CREDIT:

- wikipedia