INVICTUS TINUBU

 The past few weeks has been electioneering period in Nigeria, and what stood out for me was how the Jagaban, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu pursued his presidential ambition. He made it known to all that he has been nursing the ambition a long time, and it dictated every move he made since he made the goal his ambition. His ambition drove him to insist that it was his turn to take the presidency, after he'd purportedly helped others to achieve their political dreams. His grandstanding even against the run of play can now be described as something worth emulating, even though at the time it felt arrogant, the sort of arrogance only those willing to go against the gods would exercise before their ultimate fall.

But he didn't fail, and was declared the winner of the elections by the chairman of the body saddled with the responsibility of organising elections in Nigeria, the process that has since been declared as a step back from the progress achieved over the years, and conduct of which is now the subject of litigation at the elections tribunal, with other contestants challenging the outcome of the elections. Barring other unforseen circumstances, Tinubu will be sworn in on the 29th of May, 2023, making his deposition seem near impossible, and an unfavourable ruling from the Supreme Court highly unlikely, as has yet such a precedence does not exist in Nigeria.

The tribunal Justices have already warned against frivolous applications, and attempts to make the court decide the case based on technicalities over the merits, an exercise in futility. This is already pointing to the side of striking out pre-election matters, and the possibility of the justices basing their decision on what they think will foster and engender peace in the country, which makes one wonder what might be sidestepped so that peace may be maintained, as determined by the justices, especially after Tinubu must've been sworn in as president.

Another ominous sign for me is the declaration by the Supreme Court of Senator Ademola Adeleke as the winner of the gubernatorial elections held in Osun State last year. Many PDP members are celebrating this judgement as landmark pointing to its ruling on the BVAS, and by extension, the IREV as a shadow of things to come, as the presidential election tribunal gets under way. Those with discerning eyes are however seeing this in another light, and that is in how it is that each time Tinubu loses in little things that are directly related to him, or big things that are indirectly associated with him, he tends to get compensation in winning big things associated directly with him thereafter. You'd see him showing magnanimity when he endures such losses, so that his reaction can be pointed at when he wins big, and the loser encouraged to exhibit the spirit of sportsmanship, just like he had done.

If you still don't get what I'm saying, remember that Governor Oyetola who lost to Adeleke at the Supreme Court is thought to be related to Tinubu, besides been a member of his political party, such that when he lost the guber elections reference was especially made to Tinubu, with pointers to the effect that he might have begun to lose grip over the southwestern States. It is testament to Adeleke's political sagacity that after coming very close to defeating Oyetola in 2018, and controversially losing in the rerun in a few battle grounds after the main elections, he resoundingly won last year, and went on to deliver his state for his party in the presidential elections, a loss for Tinubu in a state his traducers say he originally hailed from. An example of what I talked about is how when Tinubu lost in Osun and Lagos States in the presidential elections in February, he appeared unperturbed while focusing on the bigger prize, purportedly winning from other states, some of which were outside his immediate control, which made those losses in the states he seemingly controlled inconsequential.

The possibility of viewing the proceedings live is another sore area for me in all these, because this way the events preceding and during the elections, will remain ingrained in the consciousness of Nigerians as they go through their daily routines, and the tense atmosphere which pervaded the country, prior and during the elections, that has gradually begun to fizzle out will return, and may likely conflagrate, depending on the decision of the court, either at the first instance or at the final, at the Supreme Court. The court of public opinion will run pari passu the actual court hearing, in the event of the court granting leave to those seeking the live airing of the proceedings, and much like those days of the TRUTH AND RECONCILIATION COMMISSION headed by Justice Chukwudifu Oputa, at the advent of the Fourth Republic, post the 1999 elections that ushered in civilian rule, after many years of military, where sometimes the irrelevants were elevated over the significants, even by the press may become the order of the day.

Regarding the outcome of the presidential election tribunal, I do not foresee the final judgement upturning Tinubu's declaration as president-elect, this is because he'd be president by the time the case would be determined, and there's as yet no precedence of such in Nigeria, as I've earlier mentioned. The next best in that direction would probably be the ordering of a new election, but under whose supervision as Head of State? Okay maybe, the President of the Senate, a member of Tinubu's party? This is where that statement about a ruling that will engender peace will come to make sense. Whether the aggrieved parties will maintain peace afterwards is left to be seen, and that side by side with how President Tinubu will react to dissent or demonstrations if that were to be the immediate reaction to the outcome of the Supreme Court judgement in his favour.

'kovich

PICTURE CREDIT:

- wikipedia

AS NIGERIA HEADS TO THE POLLS IN 2023

It's elections season once again, and every other pressing matter in Nigeria has been relegated to the background, not just by the government which must be heaving a sigh of relief owing to the lull from the barrage of verbal attacks it suffers not only from ordinary Nigerians for making their lives difficult, but also by the press which has since seized to be the mouthpiece through which these complaints, including expletives reach the government, leaving social media, as the only means and voice of the voiceless, many times to an empty "Hall", in the case of a government that couldn't care less, or that goes further to ban outlets such as twitter in a bid to stifle avenues the people engage to ventilate their frustration with the government (before political considerations led to its unbanning). It is for this reason that we are all pretending as if there's no more banditry, kidnappings, killings, insurgency, high cost of living, fuel scarcity etc going on, all because electioneering has taken centre stage.

In this elections, there's no gainsaying that there are mainly three frontrunners, namely and in no particular order, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the People's Democratic Party, PDP, and Labour Party, LP's Peter Obi. Some people will like to add New Nigeria People's Party, NNPP's Presidential Candidate, Alhaji Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, but even those that do so, know that he's no top three candidate, even though I stand to be corrected by the outcome of the elections. There are many others who are there to make up the numbers, including Omoyele Sowore, being the most vociferous of this group. This, his second outing as a presidential candidate, after he, amongst many others worked tirelessly to install this same government he's now eager to replace. It must've occurred to him, soon after this government was installed in 2015, that the devil you know, is better than the angel you don't know, because of the amount of suffering he endured personally, and collectively as a Nigerian, under it compared to the one he actively participated in toppling democratically.

Many people who think Tinubu shouldn't be president because of his frailties, forget so easily that even worse was thought of President Muhammadu Buhari, who then turned out to outlive some of those who didn't see him going beyond a first term in office. Tinubu on the other hand has produced gaffes, and continue to be the engine feeding skit makers and comedians with content at any of his outings, such that they glide in for the giveaway once he tremulously grabs the microphone. In the midst of all the snicker is the apprehension that he might just win the elections. No one gave him a chance before the primaries, indeed some of his opponents thought themselves to be Buhari's anointed, and all Tinubu asked for was a level playing field, which once it was granted, he exploited to become the presidential candidate of his party by a very convincing, incontestable margin. He's the sort of politician that knows what to do to sway votes his way, especially in the dying minutes, that is why he hasn't bothered with debates on TV, where he knows he'd get nothing but more embarrassment from an audience waiting for him to goof.

A peculiarity with Tinubu's campaign is the sense of entitlement. One of the posters of Tinubu and his running mate, Senator Kashim Shettima, had the inscription, "THE HEROES OF OUR TIME", and before now the catch phrase upon which the campaign is based is "Emilokan", Yoruba for "It Is My Turn", based on Tinubu's supposition that having brought many into positions of power, including the incumbent, President Buhari into power, he also deserves to have a taste of the presidency, which he claims to be at the top of his desires for a long time. This is without considering the clamour from the southeast for the position, seeing as the Yoruba have enjoyed many top political positions at the national level, including the presidency for eight years, and vice presidency for another eight, since the return of civil rule in 1999. The boldness behind the movement is reminiscent of the beginnings of similar adventures with disastrous endings because of its unnatural leanings and lack of respect and recognition of divine will.

Atiku Abubakar is currently nursing the wound that Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State continues to inflict on him, with his almost daily tirade, that the media are always on standby to air, hot and sizzling to the reading, listening and viewing public. Wike is so angry with Atiku that he stripped all the privileges from a former Governor Celestine Omehia (that he favoured so much in the past, just to spite the immediate past governor, and former minister for transportation, Rt. Hon. Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi), because he aligned with Atiku, anchoring his decision on a court ruling that declared the latter's tenure unconstitutional. Atiku's response to the avalanche of demarketing that he's suffering is doubling his campaign efforts, nationwide, attending debates and other fora where he thinks he will be able to reach Nigerians, as if the Wike thing is non existent. His decision to go ahead vigorously with his campaign while backdoor efforts are being made to bring dissident "INTEGRITY GROUP/G5" members, consisting of five PDP governors with their supporters, back into the fold, seems to be the best he could've done in his position.

The best case scenario for him will be a situation where Wike, the main protagonist and the other four governors return and support his campaign, or at best stop acting as stumbling blocks to his ambition if they won't support him, and then northern Christians rejecting APC and Tinubu's Muslim - Muslim ticket, as well as hoping the northerners throw their support naturally behind one of theirs, who he directly wooed at the meeting he had with a section of organizations from the region when he told them to support him as only someone from their region could fulfil their aspirations. But when Nigerians from the North Central regions, South West and Southeast remember that Atiku is fulani, just like President Buhari under whose reign fulani herdsmen continue to hold Nigerians hostage security wise, they wonder if it is trite to maintain the status quo, assuming that Atiku may look away from the atrocities of his kinsmen without actively encouraging efforts to bring them to justice. It is for this reason that Benue's Governor Ortom has a different axe to grind with Atiku, apart from the other issue the G5 governors (of which he's a part) have with him.

Peter Obi was Atiku's running mate in the last presidential election in 2019. He actually was in the hall the day Atiku declared for presidency under the banner of PDP, before decamping to the Labour Party, LP to actualize his presidential ambition, once it became clear that the PDP wasn't going to zone the position to the South, even though the chairman of the party is from the North, against PDP constitutional provisions, the core of Wike's angst against PDP and Atiku in particular. It was in the knowledge of this that Wike backed the ascension of the party chairman, Iyorchia Ayu from the North, until not only was the zoning not done in favour of the south, but that Atiku went on to win the presidential primaries despite his efforts.

Obi seems to be the candidate that has mass appeal, especially amongst youths that have become disillusioned with the status quo. It was initially thought that his supporters were mainly noise makers on social media with at best, a scant structure on ground, but as these trooped out to get registered and encouraged others to so do, they began to be noticed as threats by opposing parties. Sadly, the party seems to be only about Obi, and at the national level only, that makes the discerning wonder what will happen should he win the presidency. Some commentators reckon that it will be easier for him to decamp to either of the major two, most likely PDP, than for most members of the national assembly to decamp to his party, LP.

Peter Obi hasn't been helped by his past though, because a lot of what the media recorded during his time as governor of Anambra State wasn't palatable, besides leaving a healthy sum in the states till. Even the present governor of Anambra State appear not to give a hoot about him, and rather than just keep quiet about it, has gone to town to demarket his "brother". As if that wasn't bad enough, one of Anambra's notable billionaires, Prince Arthur Eze, recently advised Obi to shelve his presidential ambition. Another hindrance on Obi's path is the activities of groups perpetrating acts of violence and brigandage in the southeast, including targeting INEC offices and creating an atmosphere of fear that may cause many voters from the region he hails from, who hopefully could vote in his favour to be disenfranchised, unlike his opponents who may/can boast of the majority of the votes in their regions going in their favour, including in the North where in spite of the insecurity there, that Boko Haram and the bandits amongst others know better than to destroy INEC offices or disrupt the political processes, because in Nigeria, politics is local.

It has been public knowledge that former President Olusegun Obasanjo is backing Obi, not even because the latter's campaign Director General was Dr. Doyin Okupe, an Obasanjo loyalist, but for other reasons, however the replacement of Okupe following his resignation with Mr. Akin Osuntokun leaves no one in any form of doubt that Obi's project is OBJ's project, and usually this may just mean also the support of some retired military generals that the latter rolls with, from different parts of Nigeria. Maybe this will form one of the basis of discussion in the meeting the G5 are currently holding to decide who among the aspirants to throw their weight behind.

I don't think this piece will be complete without saying a thing or two about NNPP's candidate, even though I haven't counted him as one of the major contenders. It will be one of the greatest upsets in political history should he win the next election though. It may not be out of place to say that the major candidates are regional leaders, and if they are, Kwankwaso can be described as having a stronghold within one of the regions, and therefore capable to act as spoiler to Atiku's chances in the Northwest, and to some extent Tinubu's as well, and not so much to Obi who hardly stands any chance in that region. Amongst his staunch supporters though, there'll be no yielding of the grounds, but doing very well in just two states can only take a presidential candidate so far in a presidential election. In Nigeria, one of the reasons politicians persist in campaigning for elective positions even when they are in an unwinnable position is for the sake of relevance, which may come in handy for the next elections. This in my view, is the game Kwankwasiya movement is playing.

Whether this is, or will be a two-, three- or even a four - horse race, only time will tell. I have heard some commentators say that what is most likely is a situation where none of the candidates get a majority (due to how a lot of regionalism is tied to the candidates), leading to a runoff, but again impossible Is nothing, and between now and February 2023, a lot can happen, either to make the race even more predictable, or turn predictions and pollings on their head. For now pollings seem to favour candidates that have supporters with social media presence which may be a different thing at the polls when the majority from the nooks and cranny of Nigeria, without or limited access to information and communication technology will come out in their numbers to exercise their franchise. Hopefully, all sides concerned will accept the outcome of the elections with equanimity, so that the air of foreboding regarding post election violence (which is not unusual in Nigeria), will not come to pass. 

'kovich

PICTURE CREDIT:

- https://leadership.ng

AS 2023 DRAWS NIGH

2023 is around the corner, and it isn't unusual and unexpected that permutations as to who would emerge as presidential candidates of the major political parties in Nigeria is gearing up. In fact, preparations for who would succeed President Muhammadu Buhari started ín 2019, after he was sworn in for a second term. There are some people who think it started a few months after he won elections in his first term, and it became apparent that not much would be achieved in terms of building up Nigeria as a nation under him. 

After the 2015 Presidential Elections, where the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC), an amalgam of four opposition parties, managed an upset, the first of its kind in Nigeria, in an alliance majorly between the core Northern region that Buhari always aced, or garnered assuring numbers from, and the Southwest where former Governor Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu held sway; it looked almost certain that the North will return the favour by backing Tinubu for the presidency in 2023. 

Events thereafter has shown that that assertion may not entirely be true, as no sooner had Buhari gained power, than Tinubu was relegated to the background by what was later to be known as the "cabal", comprising of Buhari's kitchen cabinet, made up of close relatives and allies, all either from his immediate locality of birth, or from the north. He didn't seem to have cast his net that so wide, either during his military career, that propelled him to the position of Head Of State, or his political career during the many times he vied for the presidency, in the way he made his choice of those who would be close to him on the basis of trust, especially gained from working with such persons for years, in the past. 

Before his reelection however, he appeared to favour the mending of fences with Tinubu and once again the tape as with the first term was replayed after he regained power, as most of Tinubu's men in government and in the party were either shoved out or rendered redundant or quiet. When the Vice President 'Yemi Osinbajo (a Tinubu ally), instilled hope and shone as a bright light in the many absences of Buhari while the latter travelled abroad to cater to his health, he soon became relegated (from the first term, till date), such that subsequently power was henceforth not transmitted to him whenever his principal was away. Recently though, there's been some noise around the candidacy of Osinbajo with certain groups making it seem like he has the blessing of Buhari to succeed him. President Buhari in a recent and rare interview with the press did allude to the fact that he has a preferred candidate, but would rather not say for now, for the safety of the person. It would appear that Tinubu must've decided it most timely to appear at this stage with his visit to the Presidential villa yesterday. 

He emerged from that meeting with the president to intimate the press that he just informed the latter of his intention to run for the presidency next year, as part of his consultations before making his official declaration. This will be seen in many quarters as him getting ahead of the news, and ending conjectures surrounding his intentions that have gained ground over the years. It can also be viewed as a form of soft reminder to the incumbent of a gentleman agreement that may have existed in the past before Tinubu threw in his political capital to support and propel the former to power, in case he was beginning to forget, or finding it convenient not to remember that such a thing ever existed, even though there might not be evidence whatsoever to substantiate the claim. 

In the midst of these is what the opposition People's Democratic Party is doing. The discordant tune from there though not as loud as in the APC now where everyone is suspiciously eyeing each other, is just as much significant. Southeast politicians who feel they've always kept faith with the party are unhappy with their northern counterparts who feel that fielding a northerner as their presidential candidate in 2023 is the only way the PDP can regain power at the centre, as they seem to be saying that there's no way northerners would overlook (and pass on the chance of producing a president of Northern extraction yet again) a northern candidate, even if from the PDP for a southerner (if the APC opts to go south), and have power removed from the north for another eight years. Elements in the APC who do not want a Tinubu pocketing Nigeria the way he's done with Lagos will be the ones he will have to battle not just for his political future, but for that of any one he might decide to support should odds become stacked against his ambition, and he decides to yield, especially as those opposed to his candidacy are beginning to chance on his age, and possibly health status as their reasons. 

The day is still young though and only time can reveal what lies in stock for everyone one of us. The undeniable fact is that whoever takes over Nigeria in 2023 will have his work cut out for him. A significant event that made many yearn for 2023 was Buhari's seeming helplessness to the activities of Fulani herdsmen, his kinsmen, whom it appears seized on the opportunity that the president was of their tribe, and that most of those at the helm of affairs of the security and intelligence agencies were also of their tribe (at the time), and might be sympathetic to their cause, carried out acts of killings and brigandage with impunity, focusing initially on the North-Central region, Benue State particularly before spreading their nets further afield to other adjoining states in the South, in what was later to be officially termed farmer-herder clashes, even though most of those termed farmers (including women and children) were butchered while they slept at night. 

With the spate of killings and the increasing level of insecurity across the country, many States have adopted something akin to state police by setting up security agencies officially to assist the security agencies with the work of policing their states, and unofficially to nip the activities of marauding herdsmen and criminal gangs operating in their name, in the bud. These groups are especially active in the southwest, as Amotekun, while they are less visible in the Southeast as Ebubeagu, and in places like Benue State they are called Forest Guards. There's no gsinsaying the fact that under the Buhari administration, the security situation has worsened, but unlike many bad situations that have good aftermath, it has also led to the equipping of nigeria's military with hardware that in the future, under proper leadership could be put to the good use of defending the nation's sovereignty and integrity. 

The economy of Nigeria has never been this badly hit in recent times, with the currency battered and hardly competing with its foreign counterparts, alongside mounting debt portfolio that may have been suretied with Nigeria's abundant oil and gas deposits, which is also been threatened with the world gradually and steadily opting for greener alternatives, meaning that those hydrocarbon deposits may not be able to bail us out later. Sadly, the government that promised to diversify, seemed to focus majorly on one thing, and one thing alone, since coming to power, seeking for oil, and it's exploration thereof in the North, to give it bragging rights over the Niger Delta, to stop the latter from holding the country, and northern rulers to the jugular. In the recent interview President Buhari granted, he responded to the issue of the dwindling economic fortunes of Nigeria by saying he'd always asked Nigerians to return to the farm, and one commentator retorted that if agriculture was so important to the president how is it that it is to the Ministry of Petroleum Resources, and not that of Agriculture and Water Resources that he thought to expend his energy as Minister, which he runs alongside his job as president. The paradox of it all is that the farms are also the places that have become one of the most insecure places to be in today's Nigeria. 

Diehard supporters of President Buhari point to the infrastructural strides he's made, but close their eyes to the cost, not in Naira and Kobo, or Dollars and Yuan, but in what was mortgaged to secure the loans thereof. One time the legislature sought to know the terms and conditions associated with the loans obtained from the Chinese to upgrade Nigeria's rail network, Transport minister, Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi responded by saying that digging into the matter will discourage the Chinese lenders from further and future financial and technical support, and after a few more wrangling they (legislators) let the matter rest. Is this how a country is, and should be run? Another issue related to this is how political, sectional and primordial considerations determine the siting of infrastructure over need, and commercial viability. 

These are just a few of the strings Nigeria is trying to balance on, that those in power have set us on, away from terra firma, that anyone wishing to takeover must career us from. Sadly, by the nature alone, of those putting themselves forward, or those suspected to be nursing the ambition, especially in the big parties, there's no sign of change (for the better) in the horizon. There are better and younger people available, even in the so called big parties, they will, and some have already indicated interest to run, but unfortunately Nigeria is structured in such a way as to not allow its best to be put out for elective positions, and in the few occasions, those taught to be idealists make it into power, they are soon corrupted by the perks of their position, and end up turning up worse than the politicians we hoped they'd outperform. Our only consolation is that life must go on regardless, and because no matter how wicked, heartless, and anti-people a government's policy(-ies) might turn out to be, there will always be that one or two things that regime will do to move the country forward. It is those little things that I look forward to, while hoping that the number of such increases with time along with the changes that time enables, because as for individuals in power, in Nigeria, they are usually more, of the same. 

'kovich

 

WITH A MONTH TO THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

With a month to Nigeria's Presidential Elections (between Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the People's Democratic Party, and incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives' Congress, APC),

to say the atmosphere is charged will be an understatement. Indeed, the days when one could easily predict that the results will go one way or the other is past. Maybe the way to put it is that the days of landslide victories are over, and even though there may be a frontrunner presently, it's possible that an event, or series of events very close to the elections may tilt the majority of votes from one candidate to the other. So, if you asked me now, I'd tell you that it is yet too close to call, a far cry from me four years ago when I was more confident to make a prediction, that fell totally flat to the eventual result, and led to the historic loss of a presidential election by the incumbent to the opposition.



I understand why many think that I may be wrong in thinking that it is too close to call at this time, and already gifting the incumbent with victory, and the truth is that I won't and can't totally disagree with them. This administration isn't anything like the one they ousted, and while you might be thinking about things like anti-corruption stance, integrity and other propaganda language they've regaled Nigerians with, it is with other things, and areas that make me think it different. For one, unlike President Goodluck Jonathan, who was squeamish about any Nigerian losing his/her blood by reason of his ambition, his successor is noted to have maintained an eerie silence when bloodshed followed his loss at the polls in the penultimate election before the one that brought him to power. Meaning that, he's the type that may not be unwilling to leave anything off the table, as options to ensuring he wins re-election into office for a second term.


Two, unlike his predecessor who treated the opposition with kids' gloves, President Muhammadu Buhari brooks no dissent, and does not stay his hand in pulling them down, either by roping them with corruption charges (guilty or not), or exhumation of old and cold cases, including that of murder (acquitted or not), illegal possession of arms 
or linking them with armed robberies just because the perpetrators are known to the politicians involved, as thugs and political enforcers (and it doesn't matter if the same tactics are employed by those on his side). This administration has shown it can be relentless in clamping down on perceived enemies, or those it thinks may be unyielding in towing it's desired path, should push come to shove, following a tightly contested race, which is the only way one can describe the ordeal of the present Chief Justice of Nigeria, Walter Onnoghen.


Three, President Buhari has never conceded defeat in the elections he'd lost before the last one, in which he emerged victorious. He never congratulated those he lost to, and as president, never congratulated candidates of the opposition who won governorship positions over his partys', like with Bayelsa and Anambra States. What a free and fair election must mean to him, would be such where he's victorious. Hence, when he says he will ensure that the next elections will be free and fair, one could easily conjecture what that implies, and fear that he may not relinquish power, even if he loses the coming presidential election.


Four, this President has no qualms filling sensitive positions with close family, friends, allies mostly of his ethnic group,

or from the north. From having no urge to have a close relative of his at the echelon of the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC redeployed, even based on his much touted integrity; to his unwillingness to retire the Inspector General of Police who'd reached the mandatory age of retirement, maybe by reason of how that kind of change, so close to the General Elections can impact on things (even though going by his nature, a replacement will be a northerner, of which he seems to be comfortable), yet not feeling such when it felt trite to bring down a CJN (whom he dragged his feet to announce, until he fell ill and had to travel abroad for treatment, and the then Acting President Yemi Osinbajo, did the needful) for not fully disclosing his assets before the Code Of Conduct Tribunal, which if all goes according to plans, may also be replaced by a pliable northerner.


I could go on and on, but the above alone shows how difficult a task it is for former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar to win the next elections. These are even beyond the politics, and the rigging, accompanied by federal might that usually accompanies such in Nigeria. Atiku's financial war chest which definitely isn't infinite cannot save him now, as the gale of high-profile defections from his camp to that of the ruling party have continued to show, and would take more than the release of embarrassing tapes, audio and video by self-exiled Reno Omokri to turn this tide around in his favour. This is because President Buhari doesn't have a following in the true sense of it, rather something in the likes of worshippers, who though they may not claim he's a god, relate to him as one. Mostly in the core north, and to a lesser extent fanatically by supporters elsewhere in Nigeria, while in the southwest it is more a political decision as they (Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu particularly) eye the presidency in 2023, without a care as to whether there'll still be a Nigeria to govern by then, should Buhari get a second chance at running Nigeria the way he'd so far done.


'kovich 



PICTURE CREDIT:
- www.dailytrust.com.ng

SENATOR ADELEKE'S GUBER CHANCES

Whoever advised Senator Ademola Adeleke

to be a no-show at last night's Debates organized by Channels Television for a few of the contestants for the Osun State Gubernatorial Elections due for next Saturday 22nd September, 2018, must have done him a huge disservice. If he made the decision singlehandedly, then it is unfortunate. Not necessarily because debates matter in Nigeria, or that they've really decided the outcomes of elections here. To the contrary, current President Muhammadu Buhari won in 2015 without attending any debate, same as Governor- Elect Kayode Fayemi for Ekiti just last month. So he does have precedence to point to in deciding not to attend the debate session, however his perception by a section of the electorate will be that of someone who gives no hoot about the electorate, is arrogant, camera shy (which considering that he's never shy to show his twerking skills

even when the opportunity isn't there) or lacks eloquence or speaking skills (even though that's not a requisite for delivering on good governance and/or dividends of democracy).


Present for last night's debate for the African Democratic Congress, ADC was Alhaji Fatai Akinade, the All Progressives Congress, APC's Adegboyega Oyetola, Action Democratic Party, ADP's Moshood Adeoti and Iyiola Omisore of the Social Democratic Party, SDP,

and they gave a fair account of themselves. As usual, Oyetola defended the incumbent government's line, while the others had differing opinions, as expected. Another minus for the PDP candidate was the issue of the news that went viral online to the effect that the bank accounts of members of the Adeleke Family had been frozen by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, which he didn't debunk (with the popular singer, Davido, nephew to the senator who had been organising shows alongside his uncle to promote his candidacy, retweeting the fake news when it broke) till it was found to be a false and the EFCC vindicated.


If Senator Adeleke's supporters overlook this as well, there's still that Sword of Damocles, in the name of his WAEC certificate dangling over his head, such that even if he wins the elections, he might still get booted out of office should the courts fail to rule in his favour concerning the secondary school leaving certificate he presented, adjudged by his detractors to be fake. Sadly, in presenting that certificate, he overreached himself and was too clever by half, seeing as all he needed to do, as required by law, was prove that he attempted the school leaving certificate examinations, regardless of the grade.


Something that may work in his favour, may be the anger of Osun State people, over the comments APC's national leader, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu made before the Ataoja of Osogbo, Oba Jimoh Olanipekun in Osogbo, to the effect that Osun State

hadn't the kind of money he's looking for, that in sending his son, their own Oyetola from Lagos, he was doing them a favour. They may just see this election cycle as an opportunity to rid themselves of Tinubu's influence from Lagos over their life in Osun. Senator Adeleke will then become the popular choice, especially if the sore from the injury dealt the Osun people, as regards the assassination of former attorney general, Chief Bola Ige continues to fester, with the link to SDP's Senator Iyiola Omisore, despite court rulings in his favour, refusing to disappear.


Senator Adeleke's meteoric rise politically, in such a short time, following the demise of his elder brother, whose seat he took over in the Senate, was earned not really because he deserved it, rather because the people voted for him in memory of his late brother, against the imposition of an unpopular candidate by the governor, which led to the shifting of support from the ruling party to the PDP which he decamped to. The fact that the same scenario has played out again in the APC (with order coming from above in Lagos) with those that lost out finding shelter in other parties, further boosts Adeleke's chances, especially if he can match the financial muscle of those backing Adetola, if the fight eventually comes to who can outspend the other in the new game of vote buying, should the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC and the security agencies entrusted with the responsibility to discourage that, look the other way.


'kovich


PICTURE CREDIT:
- https://www.nan.ng
- https://www.pulse.ng