AS NIGERIA HEADS TO THE POLLS IN 2023

It's elections season once again, and every other pressing matter in Nigeria has been relegated to the background, not just by the government which must be heaving a sigh of relief owing to the lull from the barrage of verbal attacks it suffers not only from ordinary Nigerians for making their lives difficult, but also by the press which has since seized to be the mouthpiece through which these complaints, including expletives reach the government, leaving social media, as the only means and voice of the voiceless, many times to an empty "Hall", in the case of a government that couldn't care less, or that goes further to ban outlets such as twitter in a bid to stifle avenues the people engage to ventilate their frustration with the government (before political considerations led to its unbanning). It is for this reason that we are all pretending as if there's no more banditry, kidnappings, killings, insurgency, high cost of living, fuel scarcity etc going on, all because electioneering has taken centre stage.

In this elections, there's no gainsaying that there are mainly three frontrunners, namely and in no particular order, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the People's Democratic Party, PDP, and Labour Party, LP's Peter Obi. Some people will like to add New Nigeria People's Party, NNPP's Presidential Candidate, Alhaji Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, but even those that do so, know that he's no top three candidate, even though I stand to be corrected by the outcome of the elections. There are many others who are there to make up the numbers, including Omoyele Sowore, being the most vociferous of this group. This, his second outing as a presidential candidate, after he, amongst many others worked tirelessly to install this same government he's now eager to replace. It must've occurred to him, soon after this government was installed in 2015, that the devil you know, is better than the angel you don't know, because of the amount of suffering he endured personally, and collectively as a Nigerian, under it compared to the one he actively participated in toppling democratically.

Many people who think Tinubu shouldn't be president because of his frailties, forget so easily that even worse was thought of President Muhammadu Buhari, who then turned out to outlive some of those who didn't see him going beyond a first term in office. Tinubu on the other hand has produced gaffes, and continue to be the engine feeding skit makers and comedians with content at any of his outings, such that they glide in for the giveaway once he tremulously grabs the microphone. In the midst of all the snicker is the apprehension that he might just win the elections. No one gave him a chance before the primaries, indeed some of his opponents thought themselves to be Buhari's anointed, and all Tinubu asked for was a level playing field, which once it was granted, he exploited to become the presidential candidate of his party by a very convincing, incontestable margin. He's the sort of politician that knows what to do to sway votes his way, especially in the dying minutes, that is why he hasn't bothered with debates on TV, where he knows he'd get nothing but more embarrassment from an audience waiting for him to goof.

A peculiarity with Tinubu's campaign is the sense of entitlement. One of the posters of Tinubu and his running mate, Senator Kashim Shettima, had the inscription, "THE HEROES OF OUR TIME", and before now the catch phrase upon which the campaign is based is "Emilokan", Yoruba for "It Is My Turn", based on Tinubu's supposition that having brought many into positions of power, including the incumbent, President Buhari into power, he also deserves to have a taste of the presidency, which he claims to be at the top of his desires for a long time. This is without considering the clamour from the southeast for the position, seeing as the Yoruba have enjoyed many top political positions at the national level, including the presidency for eight years, and vice presidency for another eight, since the return of civil rule in 1999. The boldness behind the movement is reminiscent of the beginnings of similar adventures with disastrous endings because of its unnatural leanings and lack of respect and recognition of divine will.

Atiku Abubakar is currently nursing the wound that Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State continues to inflict on him, with his almost daily tirade, that the media are always on standby to air, hot and sizzling to the reading, listening and viewing public. Wike is so angry with Atiku that he stripped all the privileges from a former Governor Celestine Omehia (that he favoured so much in the past, just to spite the immediate past governor, and former minister for transportation, Rt. Hon. Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi), because he aligned with Atiku, anchoring his decision on a court ruling that declared the latter's tenure unconstitutional. Atiku's response to the avalanche of demarketing that he's suffering is doubling his campaign efforts, nationwide, attending debates and other fora where he thinks he will be able to reach Nigerians, as if the Wike thing is non existent. His decision to go ahead vigorously with his campaign while backdoor efforts are being made to bring dissident "INTEGRITY GROUP/G5" members, consisting of five PDP governors with their supporters, back into the fold, seems to be the best he could've done in his position.

The best case scenario for him will be a situation where Wike, the main protagonist and the other four governors return and support his campaign, or at best stop acting as stumbling blocks to his ambition if they won't support him, and then northern Christians rejecting APC and Tinubu's Muslim - Muslim ticket, as well as hoping the northerners throw their support naturally behind one of theirs, who he directly wooed at the meeting he had with a section of organizations from the region when he told them to support him as only someone from their region could fulfil their aspirations. But when Nigerians from the North Central regions, South West and Southeast remember that Atiku is fulani, just like President Buhari under whose reign fulani herdsmen continue to hold Nigerians hostage security wise, they wonder if it is trite to maintain the status quo, assuming that Atiku may look away from the atrocities of his kinsmen without actively encouraging efforts to bring them to justice. It is for this reason that Benue's Governor Ortom has a different axe to grind with Atiku, apart from the other issue the G5 governors (of which he's a part) have with him.

Peter Obi was Atiku's running mate in the last presidential election in 2019. He actually was in the hall the day Atiku declared for presidency under the banner of PDP, before decamping to the Labour Party, LP to actualize his presidential ambition, once it became clear that the PDP wasn't going to zone the position to the South, even though the chairman of the party is from the North, against PDP constitutional provisions, the core of Wike's angst against PDP and Atiku in particular. It was in the knowledge of this that Wike backed the ascension of the party chairman, Iyorchia Ayu from the North, until not only was the zoning not done in favour of the south, but that Atiku went on to win the presidential primaries despite his efforts.

Obi seems to be the candidate that has mass appeal, especially amongst youths that have become disillusioned with the status quo. It was initially thought that his supporters were mainly noise makers on social media with at best, a scant structure on ground, but as these trooped out to get registered and encouraged others to so do, they began to be noticed as threats by opposing parties. Sadly, the party seems to be only about Obi, and at the national level only, that makes the discerning wonder what will happen should he win the presidency. Some commentators reckon that it will be easier for him to decamp to either of the major two, most likely PDP, than for most members of the national assembly to decamp to his party, LP.

Peter Obi hasn't been helped by his past though, because a lot of what the media recorded during his time as governor of Anambra State wasn't palatable, besides leaving a healthy sum in the states till. Even the present governor of Anambra State appear not to give a hoot about him, and rather than just keep quiet about it, has gone to town to demarket his "brother". As if that wasn't bad enough, one of Anambra's notable billionaires, Prince Arthur Eze, recently advised Obi to shelve his presidential ambition. Another hindrance on Obi's path is the activities of groups perpetrating acts of violence and brigandage in the southeast, including targeting INEC offices and creating an atmosphere of fear that may cause many voters from the region he hails from, who hopefully could vote in his favour to be disenfranchised, unlike his opponents who may/can boast of the majority of the votes in their regions going in their favour, including in the North where in spite of the insecurity there, that Boko Haram and the bandits amongst others know better than to destroy INEC offices or disrupt the political processes, because in Nigeria, politics is local.

It has been public knowledge that former President Olusegun Obasanjo is backing Obi, not even because the latter's campaign Director General was Dr. Doyin Okupe, an Obasanjo loyalist, but for other reasons, however the replacement of Okupe following his resignation with Mr. Akin Osuntokun leaves no one in any form of doubt that Obi's project is OBJ's project, and usually this may just mean also the support of some retired military generals that the latter rolls with, from different parts of Nigeria. Maybe this will form one of the basis of discussion in the meeting the G5 are currently holding to decide who among the aspirants to throw their weight behind.

I don't think this piece will be complete without saying a thing or two about NNPP's candidate, even though I haven't counted him as one of the major contenders. It will be one of the greatest upsets in political history should he win the next election though. It may not be out of place to say that the major candidates are regional leaders, and if they are, Kwankwaso can be described as having a stronghold within one of the regions, and therefore capable to act as spoiler to Atiku's chances in the Northwest, and to some extent Tinubu's as well, and not so much to Obi who hardly stands any chance in that region. Amongst his staunch supporters though, there'll be no yielding of the grounds, but doing very well in just two states can only take a presidential candidate so far in a presidential election. In Nigeria, one of the reasons politicians persist in campaigning for elective positions even when they are in an unwinnable position is for the sake of relevance, which may come in handy for the next elections. This in my view, is the game Kwankwasiya movement is playing.

Whether this is, or will be a two-, three- or even a four - horse race, only time will tell. I have heard some commentators say that what is most likely is a situation where none of the candidates get a majority (due to how a lot of regionalism is tied to the candidates), leading to a runoff, but again impossible Is nothing, and between now and February 2023, a lot can happen, either to make the race even more predictable, or turn predictions and pollings on their head. For now pollings seem to favour candidates that have supporters with social media presence which may be a different thing at the polls when the majority from the nooks and cranny of Nigeria, without or limited access to information and communication technology will come out in their numbers to exercise their franchise. Hopefully, all sides concerned will accept the outcome of the elections with equanimity, so that the air of foreboding regarding post election violence (which is not unusual in Nigeria), will not come to pass. 

'kovich

PICTURE CREDIT:

- https://leadership.ng

WITH A MONTH TO THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

With a month to Nigeria's Presidential Elections (between Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the People's Democratic Party, and incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives' Congress, APC),

to say the atmosphere is charged will be an understatement. Indeed, the days when one could easily predict that the results will go one way or the other is past. Maybe the way to put it is that the days of landslide victories are over, and even though there may be a frontrunner presently, it's possible that an event, or series of events very close to the elections may tilt the majority of votes from one candidate to the other. So, if you asked me now, I'd tell you that it is yet too close to call, a far cry from me four years ago when I was more confident to make a prediction, that fell totally flat to the eventual result, and led to the historic loss of a presidential election by the incumbent to the opposition.



I understand why many think that I may be wrong in thinking that it is too close to call at this time, and already gifting the incumbent with victory, and the truth is that I won't and can't totally disagree with them. This administration isn't anything like the one they ousted, and while you might be thinking about things like anti-corruption stance, integrity and other propaganda language they've regaled Nigerians with, it is with other things, and areas that make me think it different. For one, unlike President Goodluck Jonathan, who was squeamish about any Nigerian losing his/her blood by reason of his ambition, his successor is noted to have maintained an eerie silence when bloodshed followed his loss at the polls in the penultimate election before the one that brought him to power. Meaning that, he's the type that may not be unwilling to leave anything off the table, as options to ensuring he wins re-election into office for a second term.


Two, unlike his predecessor who treated the opposition with kids' gloves, President Muhammadu Buhari brooks no dissent, and does not stay his hand in pulling them down, either by roping them with corruption charges (guilty or not), or exhumation of old and cold cases, including that of murder (acquitted or not), illegal possession of arms 
or linking them with armed robberies just because the perpetrators are known to the politicians involved, as thugs and political enforcers (and it doesn't matter if the same tactics are employed by those on his side). This administration has shown it can be relentless in clamping down on perceived enemies, or those it thinks may be unyielding in towing it's desired path, should push come to shove, following a tightly contested race, which is the only way one can describe the ordeal of the present Chief Justice of Nigeria, Walter Onnoghen.


Three, President Buhari has never conceded defeat in the elections he'd lost before the last one, in which he emerged victorious. He never congratulated those he lost to, and as president, never congratulated candidates of the opposition who won governorship positions over his partys', like with Bayelsa and Anambra States. What a free and fair election must mean to him, would be such where he's victorious. Hence, when he says he will ensure that the next elections will be free and fair, one could easily conjecture what that implies, and fear that he may not relinquish power, even if he loses the coming presidential election.


Four, this President has no qualms filling sensitive positions with close family, friends, allies mostly of his ethnic group,

or from the north. From having no urge to have a close relative of his at the echelon of the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC redeployed, even based on his much touted integrity; to his unwillingness to retire the Inspector General of Police who'd reached the mandatory age of retirement, maybe by reason of how that kind of change, so close to the General Elections can impact on things (even though going by his nature, a replacement will be a northerner, of which he seems to be comfortable), yet not feeling such when it felt trite to bring down a CJN (whom he dragged his feet to announce, until he fell ill and had to travel abroad for treatment, and the then Acting President Yemi Osinbajo, did the needful) for not fully disclosing his assets before the Code Of Conduct Tribunal, which if all goes according to plans, may also be replaced by a pliable northerner.


I could go on and on, but the above alone shows how difficult a task it is for former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar to win the next elections. These are even beyond the politics, and the rigging, accompanied by federal might that usually accompanies such in Nigeria. Atiku's financial war chest which definitely isn't infinite cannot save him now, as the gale of high-profile defections from his camp to that of the ruling party have continued to show, and would take more than the release of embarrassing tapes, audio and video by self-exiled Reno Omokri to turn this tide around in his favour. This is because President Buhari doesn't have a following in the true sense of it, rather something in the likes of worshippers, who though they may not claim he's a god, relate to him as one. Mostly in the core north, and to a lesser extent fanatically by supporters elsewhere in Nigeria, while in the southwest it is more a political decision as they (Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu particularly) eye the presidency in 2023, without a care as to whether there'll still be a Nigeria to govern by then, should Buhari get a second chance at running Nigeria the way he'd so far done.


'kovich 



PICTURE CREDIT:
- www.dailytrust.com.ng

OSHIOMHOLE'S CROSS

No one could've predicted that the All Progressives' Congress, APC would fall this deep into chaos after former Edo State Governor Adams Oshiomhole

took over the reins of power from the much maligned (in hindsight, apparently for no just cause) former National Chairman of the APC, John Odigie Oyegun, who was removed by the intrigues of a very powerful cabal in the APC under the guise of his perceived inability to quell discontent amongst the rank and file of party members, and as part of the sacrifice President Buhari had to make to retain the support of such powerful persons. Indeed, it would appear that the only job Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu succeeded in doing, when he was saddled with the responsibility of reconciling disgruntled members of the APC, was having the former chairman removed, and once the movement to actualize that was set in motion, he appeared to have wrapped up the committee and moved on to other things. As it stands, the only glue holding the party together is President Muhammadu Buhari, such that it would appear that even though members could work against their party in their respective states in next year's elections, they seem to remain genuinely favourable to ensuring the president gets his second term with their hard work, at least for now.

When Adams Oshiomhole became the chairman, the smouldering flame of discontent within the APC had taken on a new life, and though he initially appeared to genuinely want to resolve and put out the flames, he ended up finding that he couldn't manage disappointments from those he thought he could sway. Naturally, those who were on the side of the deposed former chairman weren't supposed to easily take to him without frictions, but it appears he remembered them and visited them with the political tool he has at his disposal, when the time came to dispense favours. The first indication of troubled times for his administration came, when some renegade members of APC formed a breakaway faction they called, Reformed-APC (R-APC) with not so many notable figures, but signifying that they indeed had the backing of such people who would be pulling out of the APC in no longer time. Oshiomhole countered by meeting with the notable personalities suspected to be harbouring plans of decamping especially to the opposition People's Democratic Party, PDP, where many of them used to be before the 2015 General Elections that saw to the defeat of the PDP. Interestingly, it would appear that, save for very few occasions, once he spoke to a disgruntled party, it didn't take long for the person to announce his decision to leave the APC to the PDP, that left many wondering what exactly about him, made it so difficult for such notable personalities to concede to him. He also added insult upon injury, when in response to the snubbing he suffered, opted to denigrate the decampees in the media, telling of how they weren't of any electoral value, amongst other insinuations he feels to hurl at those who disagreed with him.

When those he was still negotiating with, saw the way he dispensed of, and insulted those he couldn't convince to remain in the party, they must've theorized that he wasn't genuinely interested in their remaining in the party beyond the interest that is of the cabal that waltzed him into power. Initially, it looked like the wave of decampings will be short-lived and curtailed, but it wasn't, owing to the fact that those who initiated it weren't small frys, but personalities with huge followings, with political machinery deep into the party at national and state level. For instance, the Senate President Dr. Bukola Saraki didn't just leave with his state's party machinery, he moved with his position to the opposition People's Democratic Party, PDP. The spokesman of the APC at the time, also threw in his towel in solidarity with his now decamped boss.


The plan by Oshiomhole to cause him to resign his position since he had decamped to the opposition also failed. Sadly, his plan to have Saraki impeached got only as far as mere threats could go,

as the latter prolonged the break the senators had embarked upon to include the period of primary elections for the various parties, which saw many of the senators Oshiomhole was counting on to bring his will to bear at the National Assembly failing to get tickets to re-contest for their seats. This unfortunate turn of events for Oshiomhole was due to political considerations from their respective states, mostly involving the governors, some of whom having exhausted the two-term limits of their tenure in office, wanted a go at the seats occupied by some of the senators, or in the otherwise case, wanted their own lackies there, in cases where such governors had fallen out with the incumbent senators. Oshiomhole was unable to get the commitment of the dominant forces in the various state chapters to reward incumbent members of the National House of Assembly with tickets to run in next year's election, which should have served as motivation to move against Senate President Saraki. Hence, at the time plenary resumed, not only was there no longer the cojones amongst those senators (some of whom had decamped from APC after losing out) to institute impeachment proceedings against Saraki. Also, within that interregnum, the Speaker, House of Representatives, also decamped to the PDP further compounding the woes of the APC chairman, who by his actions and inactions had inadvertently caused his party the leadership of both legislative chambers.

Oshiomhole wasn't going to take the slight he endured with the primaries lying low. The list to be submitted to the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC would've to pass through him, and that was where he cut some of the governors to size. Some of them like Kaduna's Governor El-Rufai managed to get the President's ears concerning Senator Shehu Sani, who after several back and forths, lost his ticket to another in the good books of the governor. Other governors like Imo's Rochas Okorocha's (who will definitely not be erecting a statue in honour of Oshiomhole

now, or in the future, as his custom is) bid to install his son-in-law as governorship candidate, his wife and other members of his family in one position or the other, while he swims to the Senate; or Ogun's Governor Ibikunle Amosun's bid not only to name his successor but to force it down the throats of disgruntled members of the party; or in Zamfara (where because of the shenanigans of primaries due to the interplay of forces within the state and from the National in Abuja, led to a situation in which the party may not now fields candidates for any of the elections next year, after failing to meet the deadline by INEC in which they should've concluded their primaries); or Adamawa (as regards the brother of the first lady who after procuring the guber expression of interest forms found his name not on the list of contestants for the position) States, all failed in having their ways, and that's apart from several other politically wounded members of the party, for which reason the National Headquarters of the party in Abuja, have become a Mecca of some sorts, for protesting members (including the threat of naked women from Ogun State, who failed to fulfil their threat at the last minute) of the party who felt their rights (especially that of their benefactors) had been trampled upon.



Not a few of them were particular miffed at the fact that, while emasculating them at their strongholds, Oshiomhole all but allowed Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu put paid to the second term ambition of his godson and incumbent Governor Akinwunmi Ambode, of Lagos State, and if the accusation by Ogun State's Governor Amosun is anything to go by, also influenced the decision to submit a name different from the one the latter submitted as the consensus gubernatorial candidate for his state. It is therefore no surprise that the APC chairman is facing stiff opposition not only just by these powerful members of the party, but even by some members of the party, who felt that the high-handedness of Oshiomhole has caused the party to bleed in terms of members. As if all that wasn't enough, yesterday "The Cable" broke the news that Oshiomhole was quizzed by officials of Department of State Security, DSS for about nine hours last weekend over accusations of collecting bribes (levelled against him by powerful members of his party) during the primaries of the APC. Most queer is the part where the newspaper alleged that Oshiomhole was even asked to resign but declined. What has got many concerned is why it had to be the DSS that had to be involved in what can be considered an internal party affair, and scarily points to a prelude of what to expect next year especially with opposition parties, if it appears that the DSS is being partisan. For now Oshiomhole isn't having the best of days, his story so far is akin to one who was received with joy and fanfare to Jerusalem, a while back with palm-wielding crowds chanting "Hossanah", only to find the same crowds chanting "Crucify" him today.


'kovich

ATIKU'S CAMPAIGN AFTER OCTOBER 7

Once former Vice President Abubakar Atiku last week named former Governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi 

as his running mate in next year's General Elections the political space erupted. Interestingly, I'd have thought events preceding that would've caused more earthquakes, unfortunately those didn't read as much on the Richter Scale as the nomination of Obi. Like me, many weren't surprised with the outcome of the Presidential Primaries of the People's Democratic Party, PDP which threw up Atiku

 on the morning of Sunday the 7th of October this year. The only reason I was able to watch the coronation, nay affirmation of President Muhammadu Buhari as the Presidential candidate of his party, All Progressives' (which is more in word than in deed) Congress, APC which climaxed with a speech by President Buhari in the wee hours of October 7th, was because in between the voting process going on at the Port Harcourt venue of the PDP primaries which started 6th October, I'd switch to the Nigerian Television Authority, NTA which has become so partisan, enough not to bother to cover live events of the major opposition party, and have over time become so debased (with analog looking presentation, that sometimes I often think my TV dirty on the very few occasions I watch) that it is now only watched by the majority of Nigerians only when the president intends to make a speech, or on other occasions of national importance, where the National Broadcaster arrogates to itself the sole broadcasting rights.

The thought that the perception of Atiku as corrupt would shake his emergence failed to elicit the anticipated odium, rather people just seemed to have gotten tired of the tag on him, accepting it probably his human frailty, especially as there's been not so much improvement in the life of the average Nigerian being led by the supposed incorruptible (despite the fact that he was supported into power by perceived corrupt individuals, of which Atiku was one in 2015, and surrounded by corrupt individuals in power, some of whom have ought to answer but continue to be shielded) man of integrity. Clinging on the fact that Atiku couldn't visit the United States of America also managed to capture the news for a while, but that also failed to cause a ripple, after it became obvious that that impediment was sure to become a non-issue should he manage to clinch the presidency, because of several instances from Nelson Mandela to Narendra Modi, with people even saying they'd prefer a President that couldn't travel outside of the country than the globetrotter the incumbent had become in the past three years. To nail the coffin, the American Consulate in Nigeria opined that PDP's Presidential candidate has no corruption case against him in the States.



Then Atiku visited Obasanjo, accompanied by two Bishops, David Oyedepo of Living Faith Church

and Matthew Kukah (of the Archdiocese of Sokoto), and a very vocal Islamic Cleric in Sheik Abubakar Gumi,

to mediate in the lingering impasse between the former VP and his erstwhile boss, former President Olusegun Obasanjo. The success of that intervention, with the outcome that included forgiveness handed Atiku by Obasanjo,

to the point of even pledging to assist him in actualizing his dream to become Nigeria's next president, must have irked members of the ruling party so much that they had to dust up Obasanjo's impression of his deputy in his latest book, as if he had no right to change his mind or view over any subject, as he so wishes. As people remained obstinate and unconvinced, the next target was Obasanjo who they now touted as being of no electoral value, even though they'd approached him pre-2015 for support, when due to a letter he wrote former President Goodluck Jonathan berating him for misgoverning Nigeria, he's support was instrumental in getting Buhari elected to replace Jonathan. When that also failed, even President Buhari joined the fray by castigating the religious leaders that were present in the Otta residence of the former President and witnessed the epoch making event, deriding them for mixing religion with politics, even though he'd been visited by a Pastor Kumuyi

of Deeper Life Bible Church, just days back and was endorsed pre-2015 Presidential elections by Reverend Father Ejike Mbaka,

a Catholic Priest and Pastor Tunde Bakare

of Latter Rain Assembly.



All of the brick-bats that followed these events since Atiku was declared PDP's Presidential flagbearer from the ruling party and it's supporters, so far hardly dented the body of the work and progress the campaign was making as the days drew by, until a running mate was named from Southeastern Nigeria. Cyberspace waited with baited breath as to how the APC machinery will react. Interestingly, the response came from the unlikeliest of quarters. A group of so called Igbo leaders

of which the Governor of Ebonyi State, Dave Umahi spoke for, after rising from a meeting in Enugu State, stating that they weren't consulted by Atiku before the latter decided to choose former Anambra State governor as his running mate. In fact, I read about this, after a friend had called me from Abuja to inquire about what I knew about the development, from the Twitter handle of the APC who had twisted the tale to mean that Southeasterners had opposed the choice of Obi as running mate to Atiku. Like the southeastern leaders, I wasn't happy with the choice of Obi as running mate, but unlike them, it wasn't because I wasn't consulted nor was it because I wanted former Central Bank governor, Professor Charles Soludo for the position, rather I'd thought that in conceding the running mate slot to the southwest (seeing as the Niger Delta and Southeast would cast the majority of their votes in favour of Atiku regardless, having been at the receiving end of Buhari's stick), it would help him make an inroad into the Southwest, but what do I know? Also, in Nigeria, as with other executive presidencies worldwide, the Vice Presidency is redundant, and I thought a stronger position like the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, SGF or Chief of Staff, or Senate President because of Federal Character (that the incumbent regime has effectively damaged to satisfy pecuniary, primordial and nepotistic reasons), would've been more suitable for the Igbo.


Interestingly, those who burst into celebrations after hearing the part of the declaration by the Southeast leaders, they wished to hear, failed to add that they also mentioned the fact that Atiku will soon visit them to commune with them on the way forward, so that everyone will be on the same page regarding not just about his running mate, but his policies without excluding the issue of RESTRUCTURING upon which he's so far based his campaign. They've probably moved on to waiting for another opening or crevice in the Atiku campaign activities to latch on. The APC machinery is currently celebrating the travel ban placed on some Nigerians, expected to be notably of the opposition, by the execution of the Executive Order 6, signed by President Muhammadu Buhari. Some of them gloat over this, while totalling ignoring the drama currently playing out in Kano involving Governor Ganduje literally pocketing wads of dollars into the recesses of his flowing "Babanriga" gown, and many have wondered why he decided to so expose himself by going for the kill personally, when he could've sent aides, the sort for which the First Lady's driver is still in the custody of the Secret Service for allegedly diverting about $2.5M meant for his madam.


Presently, the APC camp is in disarray, and have yet to come up with an articulated response to the Tsunami that the election of Atiku by the PDP as it's presidential candidate has birthed. Some have begun calculations, where they've even ceeded the rest of Nigeria without the Northwest and Southwest to Atiku, and because of the huge voting numbers alloted to the latter two regions by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, brag that those numbers are enough for the incumbent to get re-elected, while grabbing every available straw they can lay their hands on, including the hope that emerging smaller parties can garner more votes to help dilute that by the PDP especially in the South, thinking the north will come through with block votes as it did in 2015, but with politics only time will tell.


'kovich



PICTURE CREDIT:
- www.sunnewsonline.com
- www.guardian.ng
- www.pulse.ng
- Nigerian Twitteratti

SENATOR ADELEKE'S GUBER CHANCES

Whoever advised Senator Ademola Adeleke

to be a no-show at last night's Debates organized by Channels Television for a few of the contestants for the Osun State Gubernatorial Elections due for next Saturday 22nd September, 2018, must have done him a huge disservice. If he made the decision singlehandedly, then it is unfortunate. Not necessarily because debates matter in Nigeria, or that they've really decided the outcomes of elections here. To the contrary, current President Muhammadu Buhari won in 2015 without attending any debate, same as Governor- Elect Kayode Fayemi for Ekiti just last month. So he does have precedence to point to in deciding not to attend the debate session, however his perception by a section of the electorate will be that of someone who gives no hoot about the electorate, is arrogant, camera shy (which considering that he's never shy to show his twerking skills

even when the opportunity isn't there) or lacks eloquence or speaking skills (even though that's not a requisite for delivering on good governance and/or dividends of democracy).


Present for last night's debate for the African Democratic Congress, ADC was Alhaji Fatai Akinade, the All Progressives Congress, APC's Adegboyega Oyetola, Action Democratic Party, ADP's Moshood Adeoti and Iyiola Omisore of the Social Democratic Party, SDP,

and they gave a fair account of themselves. As usual, Oyetola defended the incumbent government's line, while the others had differing opinions, as expected. Another minus for the PDP candidate was the issue of the news that went viral online to the effect that the bank accounts of members of the Adeleke Family had been frozen by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, which he didn't debunk (with the popular singer, Davido, nephew to the senator who had been organising shows alongside his uncle to promote his candidacy, retweeting the fake news when it broke) till it was found to be a false and the EFCC vindicated.


If Senator Adeleke's supporters overlook this as well, there's still that Sword of Damocles, in the name of his WAEC certificate dangling over his head, such that even if he wins the elections, he might still get booted out of office should the courts fail to rule in his favour concerning the secondary school leaving certificate he presented, adjudged by his detractors to be fake. Sadly, in presenting that certificate, he overreached himself and was too clever by half, seeing as all he needed to do, as required by law, was prove that he attempted the school leaving certificate examinations, regardless of the grade.


Something that may work in his favour, may be the anger of Osun State people, over the comments APC's national leader, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu made before the Ataoja of Osogbo, Oba Jimoh Olanipekun in Osogbo, to the effect that Osun State

hadn't the kind of money he's looking for, that in sending his son, their own Oyetola from Lagos, he was doing them a favour. They may just see this election cycle as an opportunity to rid themselves of Tinubu's influence from Lagos over their life in Osun. Senator Adeleke will then become the popular choice, especially if the sore from the injury dealt the Osun people, as regards the assassination of former attorney general, Chief Bola Ige continues to fester, with the link to SDP's Senator Iyiola Omisore, despite court rulings in his favour, refusing to disappear.


Senator Adeleke's meteoric rise politically, in such a short time, following the demise of his elder brother, whose seat he took over in the Senate, was earned not really because he deserved it, rather because the people voted for him in memory of his late brother, against the imposition of an unpopular candidate by the governor, which led to the shifting of support from the ruling party to the PDP which he decamped to. The fact that the same scenario has played out again in the APC (with order coming from above in Lagos) with those that lost out finding shelter in other parties, further boosts Adeleke's chances, especially if he can match the financial muscle of those backing Adetola, if the fight eventually comes to who can outspend the other in the new game of vote buying, should the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC and the security agencies entrusted with the responsibility to discourage that, look the other way.


'kovich


PICTURE CREDIT:
- https://www.nan.ng
- https://www.pulse.ng

APC, DEFECTIONS, TRADER MONI & ELECTIONS

When the All Progressives Congress, APC came to power in 2015, the People's Democratic Party, PDP was demonized. It didn't matter that some of its members once belonged to the party they claimed ruined Nigeria for sixteen years before power was conceded them by the majority of the Nigerian voting public. In the run-up to the 2019 General Elections, the APC seems to now be courting some of the PDP members they once accused of corruption (and even going as far as calling unprintable names), just to see if they can make inroads into some parts of Nigeria, like the southeast and Niger Delta considered No-Go areas before this time.


In making advances to these PDP members, some of whom in the recent past have been visited by officials of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, the APC appears to have officially jettisoned it's so called anti- corruption mantra (which since coming to power, its proponent in President Muhammadu Buhari has been executing rather partially, against members of the opposition PDP, dissenting voices within his party, perceived enemies rightly or wrongly), in accommodating those they once described as "thieves" and responsible for Nigeria's underdevelopment.


Not only that the decampees become "saints" after joining the ruling party, they also either have corruption charges against them withdrawn or "disappeared", or have their cases stalled in court, they then go ahead to repeat the refrain of the APC to the effect that the PDP, to which they were members until a few days, underdeveloped and robbed their states of the collective patrimony. Senator Godswill Akpabio, the biggest catch so far for the APC from PDP after the gale of high profile defections that hit the APC involving two Governors and Federal House of Assembly members, even posited that he decided to join the APC to help President Buhari fight corruption.


The APC reminds me of ANIMAL FARM where the so called liberators ended up becoming like those they replaced, only that there truly was never any difference between the APC and PDP, just that the APC managed to make some Nigerians believe so before coming to power in 2015, that's why the change they promised ended up becoming more of the same, and even worse considering that things have worsened for Nigerians, on almost all indices since they wrested power at the centre from the PDP; but of course they are quick to lay the blame of their failures, at the feet of the so called sixteen years of "misgovernance" by the PDP. This is why just weeks to the next General Elections, there appears to be few to no tangibles the party can point to, that in desperation efforts at sharing pittance to the public under different guises like "Trader Moni" (a non- collateralized, no- interest

YOU'D THINK THE BENEFICIARIES OF THE "TRADER MONI" SOFT LOAN WILL BE HAPPIER THAN THE PURVEYORS OF THE SCHEME BEHIND THEM. 

loan of N10,000 for about two million beneficiaries, recently launched in Osun State days before a Gubernatorial Election is scheduled to take place there), for instance have become intensified to "buy" the hearts and minds of Nigerians.


The brazen nature of what the APC is willing to do to hang on to power, is why many people fear that next year's elections will be free and fair. Assurances made by President Buhari last week during his visit to China, that because he isn't afraid of a free and fair election, seeing as he came to be President today via one, and so will ensure same, instils little to no confidence to the discerning considering that he'd never accepted he lost any election in Nigeria, never congratulated all those he contested against and lost, and didn't condemn the violence perpetrated by his supporters after the elections in 2011, after he lost for the third time. It begins to look like an election he'd consider free and fair will be such where he emerges the victor, without room to accommodate a contrary outcome to mean the same.



'kovich


PICTURE CREDIT:
- https://www.ynaija.com

NGIGE, EKITI, APC & BUHARI

As if the troubles bedeviling the All Progressives Congress, APC wasn't enough, yesterday a chieftain from the party from Anambra State, where he's been roundly defeated severally by the ruling party in that state, a Dr. Chris Ngige, whose political fortunes have long since nosedived, in his speech at the grand campaign rally for the Ekiti States' APC gubernatorial candidate and former governor, Dr. Kayode Fayemi, mistakenly asked Ekiti residents present at the venue, as well as Nigerians watching proceedings live on TV to vote for outgoing Governor Ayodele Fayose, who he stated had been a good wife to Ekiti people, cooking good food, amongst other attributes of, and to women that feminists may find offensive. By the time he realised his mistake, the damage had been resoundingly done, and tweets by APC followers to reduce it, only further stoked and spread the fire.

If Fayose's deputy, and People's Democratic Party, PDP candidate for next Saturday's poll wins the governorship seat, it may signal the beginning (or an intensification, if things go the other way) of the grand plot and design to have President Muhammadu Buhari lose his bid for a second term. The recent formation of the Reformed-APC, a splinter group from the APC, in what is reminiscent of what happened with the PDP, when the N-PDP was formed, and eventually contributed to a large extent to the failure of the party in the presidential elections of 2015, along with it's collaboration afterwards with other parties, with the sole aim of denying President Buhari his second term ambition signals a possible tectonic shift that will appear to cast him as the tribal leader he's always been, with the ability to win elections only in his neck of the woods, and never good for the diversity that Nigeria represents, a notion he's done absolutely nothing to dispel, first from his appointment of service chiefs mainly from his region, to pursuing policies that only suit the north only, like when he encouraged the World Bank Chief to focus on the Northeast, to reenergizing efforts at crude oil discovery in the north, to attempting to strip control of water resources from states to the federal government, when much of Nigeria's water resources lies in the south, to attempts to make the federal government responsible for the creation of ranches, across Nigeria for herdsmen, which should ordinarily be a private endeavour.

Even though Nigerians looked over his tendency to and for favouritisms, not in the least including in his so called anti-corruption fight, that seem to be targeting only those opposed to his rule and policies, they couldn't get over his quiet and silence, even the deflecting of blame from Fulani herdsmen, which he continues to champion over the killings that have become commonplace especially in Nigeria's middle-belt region, and other states like Taraba and Adamawa, where herders from his Fulani tribe have been severally implicated. The closest he'd come to accepting the responsibility of the group (tagged the fourth deadliest terrorist group in the world) in the carnage, coming only when he refers to the asymmetric warfare meted out on indigenes (including women and children while they slept) of the affected places, was to deem the attacks a farmers-herders clash, when evidence hardly supports such.

Unfortunately, because of his below par response, and scant if any, attempt at ensuring justice for victims and survivors by bringing perpetrators of the killings to book despite repeated assurances to do same, the recent reprisal attacks by mostly militia groups of affected tribes and peoples (of Benue, Plateau, Taraba, Adamawa in recent times), who have resorted to self help, is the offshoot. Security agents like members of the police and army, deployed most times only as a reactionary force, that may have even stood by when the initial incidence of mayhem and massacres that took place, because they hadn't received orders "from above", have led many of the indigenes, including a retired army General to allege that the military and security forces besides taking sides, have even gone ahead to collude with marauding Fulani herdsmen. When the President recently claimed that it was unfair to say he hadn't wielded the big stick against the herdsmen because he was also Fulani, he failed to mention  things he'd done that should make Nigerians observe otherwise.

Sadly, many of the states, save for Taraba, suffering from the high insecurity situation in Nigeria, are those from which President Buhari gained huge electoral figures that helped propelled him to power. That includes Zamfara, where armed men, this time not suspected to be Fulani, have so menaced the state that the governor recently conceded his largely ceremonial title of Chief Security Officer of the state he superintends over as governor, seeing as he couldn't control how troops are to be deployed, nor have the power to chastise erring officers. On more than one occasion, the President, and members of his party have done what they accused the party they replaced in coming to power of doing, which is dancing on the graves of Nigerians, by organising and holding party rallies during and after deadly attacks on Nigerians, only for the government to release much rehashed statements (the only difference been in dates and places), expressing shock and outrage at the killings, sympathising with the government and people of the affected state, and vowing to bring perpetrators to book, before the Vice President, 'Yemi Osinbajo, now sadly declared "Minister of Condolence and Tragedy" by the unimpressed mass of Nigerian Twitterati, is then sent to the State, to assess the situation.

As if things weren't bad enough, Femi Adeshina, government's spokesman (who  has taken sycophancy to new heights) went on to add salt to injury of Nigerians by insensitively stating that deaths under the immediate past government, was more than it is under the current regime, like the loss of Nigerian lives have become a competition of, and for under whom were more lives lost, as if a life should be lost at all. The irony wasn't at all lost on discerning Nigerians, when Buhari just hours ago, rejoiced with, and thanked Thai authorities for successfully rescuing some teenage footballers and their coach from a maze of caves, after they got trapped there days ago. The shouts of a few, who had aforehand read the handwriting on the wall, concerning the president's lack of capacity to steer the ship of state have now, before and after the 2015 elections, continued to be boosted by the addition of voices connected to eyes from which scales have fallen, leaving the government no choice, seemingly than to explore coercive means to turn things in its favour politically, starting with Ekiti State in but a few days time.

'kovich

AS TUFACE BACKS DOWN ON HIS PLANNED PROTEST

People who know me enough, know to bet against teams I openly support, hence when it comes to betting I hardly am your best bet in terms of predictions but I guessed something right this time around, unfortunately I didn't stake a claim publicly before it became reality, and so you could feel free to say "Yeah Right" in response to my veiled prediction. Maybe next time, I'd be more forthcoming, but the truth is that since talk about this proposed rally or peaceful protest or demonstration, which later had popular Nigerian artiste, Innocent Idibia aka Tuface aka Tubaba as its face became talk of town, with supporters and antagonists equally matched with daggers drawn, I'd personally spoken or written little about it on social media and outside of it, because somehow, having put several two and twos together, I felt it wouldn't hold. I didn't know however, that Tuface himself (who continues to endure personal attacks verbally thrown at him on all sides since pegging his name to the protests) will via YouTube cancel it, for now, for fear that it might be hijacked by vested interests, not aligned with the spirit of the protests, especially seeing that there are now genuine fears for the lives of protesters by no less, those whose constitutional responsibility it is to protect them (with precedence to boot).

TUFACE CANCELS PLANNED PROTEST.

The truth is that Nigerians are suffering, including those who are still playing ostriches, just because their man President Muhammadu Buhari is in power and they can't support any anything that may end up with power shifting from the north to the south (even with the likelihood slim to non-existent), the reason why he still has massive support in the North; or because they are too proud, like most southwesterners to admit that they fell for a well orchestrated scam in the last presidential election, even with their so called exposure and enlightenment; or because like southeastern politicians just because of a promise of power shift to the Igbo after eight years of Buhari, have now suddenly seen the "light", and in throwing their weight behind the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC by decamping in their droves from the People's Democratic Party, PDP with no thoughts for their brother, Deputy Senate President Ekwerenmadu whose position they've largely jeopardized unless he aligns with them and switch as well to the ruling party.

By dawn, when Nigerians wake to the news, those "Standing With Buhari" will see this as a victory, while those in opposition will lick their wounds, but the discerning will see this as another missed opportunity to demand that those in power be accountable to the people on whose behalf they exercise such powers. I have watched how some commentators in the past few days have missed the point in stating their positions, forgetting that protests are a cardinal part of democracy, more important even than the elections which is like the fuel for the engine that drives democracy, of which the work itself is in the driving, navigating through the bumpy parts and maintaining the vehicle. But they say, if we don't like a government we should simply wait four years to change it (rather than demand a change midstream even of the people in power who promised change, but appear only to have strengthened the old ways of doing things), as if we are all guaranteed to be alive in four years.

NIGERIA'S SHIP OF STATE.

I saw Nigerians, some of whom are leaders of thought, support the gagging of fellow Nigerians because they disagree with their stance on issues. Forgetting that the alternative to protests is something far worse, and that presently it's a slippery slope filled with smoldering embers that we are on, the flames of which this protest originally planned for Monday the 6th of February would've helped to douse. You could feel the anger in Nigerians when they speak on the streets, at newspaper stands,

on call-in programmes in the electronic media, in vox-pop sections of newspapers, to the social media, and some have gone ahead to express their displeasure in the rising rate of crime and criminality because of the hardship that the name Buhari now seems to embody and connote. Yet, when a group thought it wise that people should channel their anger in the orderly manner that a protest avails, as the constitution allows, some of their fellow country men, including the police charged with the responsibility amongst others, to maintain law and order, besides providing adequate security for protesters not only decided to frustrate the move, but at every point warned against holding the "peaceful" protest, even when the "Acting President" declared that Nigerians have every right to protest. Though in retrospect it's difficult to not read between the lines to find that he may not have matched action to his words, going by the manner the Inspector General of Police appeared to still issue a statement after that banning any protest, (in his estimation) for and against the government in power.

I understand that the ruling party will be weary of protests against its policies (that's even if they have any), as they should ordinarily, seeing that their ascendancy to power was on the back of protests such as this a few years ago, and because of extenuating circumstances, feel that this one may be politically motivated, just like they did while in opposition, unfortunately they will leave so very undone the very democracy for which they are beneficiaries today, as more Nigerians continue to bottle up their pent up anger at an aloof president, a veepee with hands tied, a selfish parliament, and weakened judiciary, with an Acting Chief Justice whose confirmation hangs in the balance and may have to quit in days, after holding the reins for just three months, because (according to widespread belief) he doesn't fit the geopolitical requirement for such a high position that he should normally live and have progressed into.

Finally, the greatest shame of all. The police that has yet to reform itself to become the police of the people, like they've become everywhere else in developed democracies, and not just phalanges of the president and people in power. I don't even know the generation of officers who will be committed to help bring Nigeria to the comity of "civilized" nations via exemplary policing amongst the present set of all cadres, starting with management of protests. Even with all of President Donald Trump's hatred for opposition, he didn't order a crackdown on protesters (who exponentially trumped the number of those at his "empty" inauguration) against his "knee-jerk reaction" executive orders. One of the reasons many people gave this

Buhari regime a chance was because of his Vice President 'Yemi Osinbajo, a law professor and former Attorney-General of Lagos State, and for him not to have gone beyond just mouthing support for this protest, definitely not against his party but for the right of Nigerians to do so, and insist on them being allowed as guaranteed by the constitution, injures the soul. In another opportunity where he's left to clear the mess after his boss, who once again is out of the country on "vacation", he forgets easily, the eternal words of the late President John F. Kennedy, that "those who make peaceful revolution (change) impossible, make violent revolution (change) inevitable". Mtcheeeeeew!


'kovich



VIDEO CREDIT:
- https://www.youtube.com


PICTURE CREDIT:
- NIGERIA FIRST STICKERS by RESPONSIBLE CITIZENS OF NIGERIA

NIGERIA, AFTER THE ELECTIONS

I never thought there could be a day when Nigerians (like Americans who are divided almost evenly into Republican and Democratic Party supporters), will be divided nearly evenly into supporters of the All Progressives Congress, APC and People’s Democratic Party, PDP supporters evenly, enough to pursue relationships along that line, either positively or negatively.

Nigerians aren't new to divisions, in fact since independence and way before that, what has kept Nigerians divided had been religion and ethnicity, and anyone with an iota of discerning spirit knows that the wheel that grinds this country into motion is oiled by those aforementioned ills, and now we have added to that partisan politics. I make bold to say that at no time in Nigeria's history, have the divisive impact of politics been this well rooted, even though on the surface one could point to times in the past when lives were lost following General Elections such as the one we had in March. It is to the credit of former President Goodluck Jonathan that this country did not descend into chaos and war with his timely acceptance of defeat and congratulating then president-elect Muhammadu Buhari with millions of votes to be counted though it had become obvious where the votes will swing.

                                                 PRESIDENT MUHAMMADU BUHARI

Elections are gone now and what was  considered impossible in Nigeria's history happened, with the victory of an opposition party candidate over an incumbent, and though weeks have passed since that happened the "warring" factions have yet to climb out of their trenches. So we now have a situation where the President Buhari led government and supporters must prove that they can deliver on the promises they made during the campaigns, many of which appear to have now been abandoned (if the BODY LANGUAGE of the president and his handlers are anything to go), in form of denials and the heaping of the blame of such so called promises, on overzealous supporters, while the NEW opposition party, PDP and it's supporters and those who preferred not to vote Buhari pounce on that to play the "I Told You So" tape.

Now on the defensive, against the barrage of criticisms coming from the opposition over every action taken by the president, the presidency and his handlers and supporters have not failed to exploit every opportunity to proclaim the good done by the administration, while the opposition have managed to score some points in having the government acknowledge some of the criticisms, by promising to do better, especially as regards the lopsidedness of the appointments made by the president so far, to the eventual release of preliminary statement regarding the assets of the president and vice president publicly, while the full meat is being awaited once the Code Of Conduct Bureau concludes its investigations on the assets both have declared, for which both sides of the divide are celebrating as victories to their causes.

What the opposition is yet to wrap its head around is the talk of the president's "Body Language" been touted as responsible for any positive happening or the "changing atmosphere", even when nothing was invested in bringing about the "order", while the yet lingering "negatives" is thrown in the direction of the new opposition that had been in power for the past sixteen years. One reality that has come home to all though, is that the fight against CORRUPTION appears to have mellowed with all the hue and cry of expectations and fabrications, finger pointings and media lynching, even by people who should know better have begun to give way to pessimism on the one side, especially of the opposition and fading hope on the other as it begins to look as if change is resembling much of the same, as was with past governments where the anticorruption fight was simply mouthed, or the opposition (to the government, even within the same party) was targeted, including scapegoatism for which just about anybody could be victim.

It has become pertinent, that President Buhari though still riding high on the people's goodwill must not allow himself to be carried away by the praises of sycophants, nor allow himself to be wearied by criticisms, rather he must measure both sides in taking actions, propounding and executing policies that will deliver the dividend of democracy to the majority of the Nigerian populace, as wide as the reach of the federal government can allow.

'kovich