AS NIGERIA HEADS TO THE POLLS IN 2023

It's elections season once again, and every other pressing matter in Nigeria has been relegated to the background, not just by the government which must be heaving a sigh of relief owing to the lull from the barrage of verbal attacks it suffers not only from ordinary Nigerians for making their lives difficult, but also by the press which has since seized to be the mouthpiece through which these complaints, including expletives reach the government, leaving social media, as the only means and voice of the voiceless, many times to an empty "Hall", in the case of a government that couldn't care less, or that goes further to ban outlets such as twitter in a bid to stifle avenues the people engage to ventilate their frustration with the government (before political considerations led to its unbanning). It is for this reason that we are all pretending as if there's no more banditry, kidnappings, killings, insurgency, high cost of living, fuel scarcity etc going on, all because electioneering has taken centre stage.

In this elections, there's no gainsaying that there are mainly three frontrunners, namely and in no particular order, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the People's Democratic Party, PDP, and Labour Party, LP's Peter Obi. Some people will like to add New Nigeria People's Party, NNPP's Presidential Candidate, Alhaji Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, but even those that do so, know that he's no top three candidate, even though I stand to be corrected by the outcome of the elections. There are many others who are there to make up the numbers, including Omoyele Sowore, being the most vociferous of this group. This, his second outing as a presidential candidate, after he, amongst many others worked tirelessly to install this same government he's now eager to replace. It must've occurred to him, soon after this government was installed in 2015, that the devil you know, is better than the angel you don't know, because of the amount of suffering he endured personally, and collectively as a Nigerian, under it compared to the one he actively participated in toppling democratically.

Many people who think Tinubu shouldn't be president because of his frailties, forget so easily that even worse was thought of President Muhammadu Buhari, who then turned out to outlive some of those who didn't see him going beyond a first term in office. Tinubu on the other hand has produced gaffes, and continue to be the engine feeding skit makers and comedians with content at any of his outings, such that they glide in for the giveaway once he tremulously grabs the microphone. In the midst of all the snicker is the apprehension that he might just win the elections. No one gave him a chance before the primaries, indeed some of his opponents thought themselves to be Buhari's anointed, and all Tinubu asked for was a level playing field, which once it was granted, he exploited to become the presidential candidate of his party by a very convincing, incontestable margin. He's the sort of politician that knows what to do to sway votes his way, especially in the dying minutes, that is why he hasn't bothered with debates on TV, where he knows he'd get nothing but more embarrassment from an audience waiting for him to goof.

A peculiarity with Tinubu's campaign is the sense of entitlement. One of the posters of Tinubu and his running mate, Senator Kashim Shettima, had the inscription, "THE HEROES OF OUR TIME", and before now the catch phrase upon which the campaign is based is "Emilokan", Yoruba for "It Is My Turn", based on Tinubu's supposition that having brought many into positions of power, including the incumbent, President Buhari into power, he also deserves to have a taste of the presidency, which he claims to be at the top of his desires for a long time. This is without considering the clamour from the southeast for the position, seeing as the Yoruba have enjoyed many top political positions at the national level, including the presidency for eight years, and vice presidency for another eight, since the return of civil rule in 1999. The boldness behind the movement is reminiscent of the beginnings of similar adventures with disastrous endings because of its unnatural leanings and lack of respect and recognition of divine will.

Atiku Abubakar is currently nursing the wound that Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State continues to inflict on him, with his almost daily tirade, that the media are always on standby to air, hot and sizzling to the reading, listening and viewing public. Wike is so angry with Atiku that he stripped all the privileges from a former Governor Celestine Omehia (that he favoured so much in the past, just to spite the immediate past governor, and former minister for transportation, Rt. Hon. Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi), because he aligned with Atiku, anchoring his decision on a court ruling that declared the latter's tenure unconstitutional. Atiku's response to the avalanche of demarketing that he's suffering is doubling his campaign efforts, nationwide, attending debates and other fora where he thinks he will be able to reach Nigerians, as if the Wike thing is non existent. His decision to go ahead vigorously with his campaign while backdoor efforts are being made to bring dissident "INTEGRITY GROUP/G5" members, consisting of five PDP governors with their supporters, back into the fold, seems to be the best he could've done in his position.

The best case scenario for him will be a situation where Wike, the main protagonist and the other four governors return and support his campaign, or at best stop acting as stumbling blocks to his ambition if they won't support him, and then northern Christians rejecting APC and Tinubu's Muslim - Muslim ticket, as well as hoping the northerners throw their support naturally behind one of theirs, who he directly wooed at the meeting he had with a section of organizations from the region when he told them to support him as only someone from their region could fulfil their aspirations. But when Nigerians from the North Central regions, South West and Southeast remember that Atiku is fulani, just like President Buhari under whose reign fulani herdsmen continue to hold Nigerians hostage security wise, they wonder if it is trite to maintain the status quo, assuming that Atiku may look away from the atrocities of his kinsmen without actively encouraging efforts to bring them to justice. It is for this reason that Benue's Governor Ortom has a different axe to grind with Atiku, apart from the other issue the G5 governors (of which he's a part) have with him.

Peter Obi was Atiku's running mate in the last presidential election in 2019. He actually was in the hall the day Atiku declared for presidency under the banner of PDP, before decamping to the Labour Party, LP to actualize his presidential ambition, once it became clear that the PDP wasn't going to zone the position to the South, even though the chairman of the party is from the North, against PDP constitutional provisions, the core of Wike's angst against PDP and Atiku in particular. It was in the knowledge of this that Wike backed the ascension of the party chairman, Iyorchia Ayu from the North, until not only was the zoning not done in favour of the south, but that Atiku went on to win the presidential primaries despite his efforts.

Obi seems to be the candidate that has mass appeal, especially amongst youths that have become disillusioned with the status quo. It was initially thought that his supporters were mainly noise makers on social media with at best, a scant structure on ground, but as these trooped out to get registered and encouraged others to so do, they began to be noticed as threats by opposing parties. Sadly, the party seems to be only about Obi, and at the national level only, that makes the discerning wonder what will happen should he win the presidency. Some commentators reckon that it will be easier for him to decamp to either of the major two, most likely PDP, than for most members of the national assembly to decamp to his party, LP.

Peter Obi hasn't been helped by his past though, because a lot of what the media recorded during his time as governor of Anambra State wasn't palatable, besides leaving a healthy sum in the states till. Even the present governor of Anambra State appear not to give a hoot about him, and rather than just keep quiet about it, has gone to town to demarket his "brother". As if that wasn't bad enough, one of Anambra's notable billionaires, Prince Arthur Eze, recently advised Obi to shelve his presidential ambition. Another hindrance on Obi's path is the activities of groups perpetrating acts of violence and brigandage in the southeast, including targeting INEC offices and creating an atmosphere of fear that may cause many voters from the region he hails from, who hopefully could vote in his favour to be disenfranchised, unlike his opponents who may/can boast of the majority of the votes in their regions going in their favour, including in the North where in spite of the insecurity there, that Boko Haram and the bandits amongst others know better than to destroy INEC offices or disrupt the political processes, because in Nigeria, politics is local.

It has been public knowledge that former President Olusegun Obasanjo is backing Obi, not even because the latter's campaign Director General was Dr. Doyin Okupe, an Obasanjo loyalist, but for other reasons, however the replacement of Okupe following his resignation with Mr. Akin Osuntokun leaves no one in any form of doubt that Obi's project is OBJ's project, and usually this may just mean also the support of some retired military generals that the latter rolls with, from different parts of Nigeria. Maybe this will form one of the basis of discussion in the meeting the G5 are currently holding to decide who among the aspirants to throw their weight behind.

I don't think this piece will be complete without saying a thing or two about NNPP's candidate, even though I haven't counted him as one of the major contenders. It will be one of the greatest upsets in political history should he win the next election though. It may not be out of place to say that the major candidates are regional leaders, and if they are, Kwankwaso can be described as having a stronghold within one of the regions, and therefore capable to act as spoiler to Atiku's chances in the Northwest, and to some extent Tinubu's as well, and not so much to Obi who hardly stands any chance in that region. Amongst his staunch supporters though, there'll be no yielding of the grounds, but doing very well in just two states can only take a presidential candidate so far in a presidential election. In Nigeria, one of the reasons politicians persist in campaigning for elective positions even when they are in an unwinnable position is for the sake of relevance, which may come in handy for the next elections. This in my view, is the game Kwankwasiya movement is playing.

Whether this is, or will be a two-, three- or even a four - horse race, only time will tell. I have heard some commentators say that what is most likely is a situation where none of the candidates get a majority (due to how a lot of regionalism is tied to the candidates), leading to a runoff, but again impossible Is nothing, and between now and February 2023, a lot can happen, either to make the race even more predictable, or turn predictions and pollings on their head. For now pollings seem to favour candidates that have supporters with social media presence which may be a different thing at the polls when the majority from the nooks and cranny of Nigeria, without or limited access to information and communication technology will come out in their numbers to exercise their franchise. Hopefully, all sides concerned will accept the outcome of the elections with equanimity, so that the air of foreboding regarding post election violence (which is not unusual in Nigeria), will not come to pass. 

'kovich

PICTURE CREDIT:

- https://leadership.ng

ATIKU'S CAMPAIGN AFTER OCTOBER 7

Once former Vice President Abubakar Atiku last week named former Governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi 

as his running mate in next year's General Elections the political space erupted. Interestingly, I'd have thought events preceding that would've caused more earthquakes, unfortunately those didn't read as much on the Richter Scale as the nomination of Obi. Like me, many weren't surprised with the outcome of the Presidential Primaries of the People's Democratic Party, PDP which threw up Atiku

 on the morning of Sunday the 7th of October this year. The only reason I was able to watch the coronation, nay affirmation of President Muhammadu Buhari as the Presidential candidate of his party, All Progressives' (which is more in word than in deed) Congress, APC which climaxed with a speech by President Buhari in the wee hours of October 7th, was because in between the voting process going on at the Port Harcourt venue of the PDP primaries which started 6th October, I'd switch to the Nigerian Television Authority, NTA which has become so partisan, enough not to bother to cover live events of the major opposition party, and have over time become so debased (with analog looking presentation, that sometimes I often think my TV dirty on the very few occasions I watch) that it is now only watched by the majority of Nigerians only when the president intends to make a speech, or on other occasions of national importance, where the National Broadcaster arrogates to itself the sole broadcasting rights.

The thought that the perception of Atiku as corrupt would shake his emergence failed to elicit the anticipated odium, rather people just seemed to have gotten tired of the tag on him, accepting it probably his human frailty, especially as there's been not so much improvement in the life of the average Nigerian being led by the supposed incorruptible (despite the fact that he was supported into power by perceived corrupt individuals, of which Atiku was one in 2015, and surrounded by corrupt individuals in power, some of whom have ought to answer but continue to be shielded) man of integrity. Clinging on the fact that Atiku couldn't visit the United States of America also managed to capture the news for a while, but that also failed to cause a ripple, after it became obvious that that impediment was sure to become a non-issue should he manage to clinch the presidency, because of several instances from Nelson Mandela to Narendra Modi, with people even saying they'd prefer a President that couldn't travel outside of the country than the globetrotter the incumbent had become in the past three years. To nail the coffin, the American Consulate in Nigeria opined that PDP's Presidential candidate has no corruption case against him in the States.



Then Atiku visited Obasanjo, accompanied by two Bishops, David Oyedepo of Living Faith Church

and Matthew Kukah (of the Archdiocese of Sokoto), and a very vocal Islamic Cleric in Sheik Abubakar Gumi,

to mediate in the lingering impasse between the former VP and his erstwhile boss, former President Olusegun Obasanjo. The success of that intervention, with the outcome that included forgiveness handed Atiku by Obasanjo,

to the point of even pledging to assist him in actualizing his dream to become Nigeria's next president, must have irked members of the ruling party so much that they had to dust up Obasanjo's impression of his deputy in his latest book, as if he had no right to change his mind or view over any subject, as he so wishes. As people remained obstinate and unconvinced, the next target was Obasanjo who they now touted as being of no electoral value, even though they'd approached him pre-2015 for support, when due to a letter he wrote former President Goodluck Jonathan berating him for misgoverning Nigeria, he's support was instrumental in getting Buhari elected to replace Jonathan. When that also failed, even President Buhari joined the fray by castigating the religious leaders that were present in the Otta residence of the former President and witnessed the epoch making event, deriding them for mixing religion with politics, even though he'd been visited by a Pastor Kumuyi

of Deeper Life Bible Church, just days back and was endorsed pre-2015 Presidential elections by Reverend Father Ejike Mbaka,

a Catholic Priest and Pastor Tunde Bakare

of Latter Rain Assembly.



All of the brick-bats that followed these events since Atiku was declared PDP's Presidential flagbearer from the ruling party and it's supporters, so far hardly dented the body of the work and progress the campaign was making as the days drew by, until a running mate was named from Southeastern Nigeria. Cyberspace waited with baited breath as to how the APC machinery will react. Interestingly, the response came from the unlikeliest of quarters. A group of so called Igbo leaders

of which the Governor of Ebonyi State, Dave Umahi spoke for, after rising from a meeting in Enugu State, stating that they weren't consulted by Atiku before the latter decided to choose former Anambra State governor as his running mate. In fact, I read about this, after a friend had called me from Abuja to inquire about what I knew about the development, from the Twitter handle of the APC who had twisted the tale to mean that Southeasterners had opposed the choice of Obi as running mate to Atiku. Like the southeastern leaders, I wasn't happy with the choice of Obi as running mate, but unlike them, it wasn't because I wasn't consulted nor was it because I wanted former Central Bank governor, Professor Charles Soludo for the position, rather I'd thought that in conceding the running mate slot to the southwest (seeing as the Niger Delta and Southeast would cast the majority of their votes in favour of Atiku regardless, having been at the receiving end of Buhari's stick), it would help him make an inroad into the Southwest, but what do I know? Also, in Nigeria, as with other executive presidencies worldwide, the Vice Presidency is redundant, and I thought a stronger position like the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, SGF or Chief of Staff, or Senate President because of Federal Character (that the incumbent regime has effectively damaged to satisfy pecuniary, primordial and nepotistic reasons), would've been more suitable for the Igbo.


Interestingly, those who burst into celebrations after hearing the part of the declaration by the Southeast leaders, they wished to hear, failed to add that they also mentioned the fact that Atiku will soon visit them to commune with them on the way forward, so that everyone will be on the same page regarding not just about his running mate, but his policies without excluding the issue of RESTRUCTURING upon which he's so far based his campaign. They've probably moved on to waiting for another opening or crevice in the Atiku campaign activities to latch on. The APC machinery is currently celebrating the travel ban placed on some Nigerians, expected to be notably of the opposition, by the execution of the Executive Order 6, signed by President Muhammadu Buhari. Some of them gloat over this, while totalling ignoring the drama currently playing out in Kano involving Governor Ganduje literally pocketing wads of dollars into the recesses of his flowing "Babanriga" gown, and many have wondered why he decided to so expose himself by going for the kill personally, when he could've sent aides, the sort for which the First Lady's driver is still in the custody of the Secret Service for allegedly diverting about $2.5M meant for his madam.


Presently, the APC camp is in disarray, and have yet to come up with an articulated response to the Tsunami that the election of Atiku by the PDP as it's presidential candidate has birthed. Some have begun calculations, where they've even ceeded the rest of Nigeria without the Northwest and Southwest to Atiku, and because of the huge voting numbers alloted to the latter two regions by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, brag that those numbers are enough for the incumbent to get re-elected, while grabbing every available straw they can lay their hands on, including the hope that emerging smaller parties can garner more votes to help dilute that by the PDP especially in the South, thinking the north will come through with block votes as it did in 2015, but with politics only time will tell.


'kovich



PICTURE CREDIT:
- www.sunnewsonline.com
- www.guardian.ng
- www.pulse.ng
- Nigerian Twitteratti